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View of what state media KCNA reported was a test-firing of the weapons system of the new "Choe Hyon-class" warship, in this picture released on April 30, 2025, by the Korean Central News Agency.
Welcome to the new global arms race: faster, smarter, more dangerous and more expensive than ever. In 2024, world military spending surged toa record $2.7 trillion, the steepest annual increase since the Cold War's end, driven largely by European, Asian and Middle Eastern nations.
Who's buying?
Faced with threats from Russia, Europe has ramped up defense budgets, with Poland's spending growing by 31% to $38 billion and Sweden’s by 34% to $12 billion in its first year of NATO membership. Germany increased military expenditure by 28% to $88.5 billion, making it the fourth-largest spender globally and rearming the nation that precipitated the two major world wars of the last century.
In the Middle East, Israel's military spending soared by 65% per cent to $46.5 billion, the largest annual rise since 1967, amid its war with Hamas in Gaza and conflict with Hezbollah in South Lebanon. In Asia, China spent 7% more on its military in 2024, adding an estimated $314 billion, raising fears of an imminent operation against Taiwan, which boosted its military spending by 1.8% in 2024 to $16.5 billion. Fellow Asia-Pacific power Japan saw its military budget rise by 21% to $55.3 billion, its largest annual increase since 1952.
Who's selling?
Traditional arms exporters like the United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany continue to dominate the market. However, emerging players such as India, Turkey, and Israel are increasing their share. Notably,Israel's defense exports reached a record $14.8 billion in 2024, with Europe accounting for 54% of sales, up from 35% the previous year.
What’s on the wish list?
Today’s arms race is not just about quantity, but technology. Nations are investing heavily in next-generation weapons, including drones, hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and space-based systems.
In the US, President Donald Trump’s desire for a “Golden Dome” missile defence system akin to Israel’s “Iron Dome” would add $175 billion to Washington’s arms budget over the next three years. It would also require the cooperation of neighboring Canada, at a price of $61 billion, or 51st statehood – which Prime Minister Mark Carney has made clear is not on the table.
Russia’s recent announcement that it is equipping Belarus withantiballistic Oreshnik missiles capable of striking all of Europe has upped the need for missile defence systems on the continent. The United States, China, France, and Germany have also invested in electromagnetic railguns that shoot projectiles without gunpowder; last year, Japan became the first country to test one at sea.
Strategic implications
All this warmongering could deal a death blow to arms control agreements. The New START treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire in February 2026, withlittle hope for renewal. It could also see new theatres of war emerge: in the Asia Pacific around Taiwan, in Europe in countries bordering Ukraine, and in cyberspace, through the use of disinformation and propaganda campaigns. And all that military spending will put a dent in national budgets, possibly requiring cuts to social benefits, increased debt, or fewer government services - which won’t make voters happy, and could contribute to political instability.
On this week’s GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a look at one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world: the Taiwan Strait. China has been conducting drills around Taiwan for years, but since the current pro-independence president, William Lai, took office in 2024, Beijing has been staging near-daily military exercises near the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before.
Lai has pledged to boost defense spending, strengthen ties with the US, and reduce Taiwan’s economic dependence on China. But Lai faces serious political headwinds at home. His party lost its majority in parliament, and he’ll have to navigate a deeply divided government to get anything done. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping says reunification with Taiwan is a national priority and has made it clear Beijing won’t hesitate to take the island by force if necessary. The stakes are global: A war in the Strait would reshape the world economy, drag in major powers, potentially triggering the deadliest military conflict in the Asia-Pacific since World War II. So how far can China push, and how long can Taiwan hold out, before a crisis becomes inevitable?
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Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a key pillar of his nationalist agenda. He’s ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027, and the PLA has been conducting near-daily military drills around the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down how China could seize Taiwan without firing a single shot.
The rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait have policymakers and military analysts nervous China is preparing for an invasion. But is armed conflict with Taiwan in Beijing’s best interest? It would be deadly, costly, and likely to drag into the US and its allies. But short of an all-out invasion, China has plenty of options to force unification with Taiwan. It’s known as “gray zone” warfare—action that stays just below a threshold that would trigger an international response, which is ideal for Beijing: no missiles, no tanks, just a slow, suffocating squeeze.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
What We’re Watching: Trump and Musk feud, Russia retaliates, Bangladesh sets elections
Will Trump and Musk kiss and make up?
The extraordinary public feud between US President Donald Trump and his former government efficiency czar Elon Musk continues. Despite late night reports that the two alphas were seeking detente, Trump was reportedly unwilling to engage with Musk again on Friday morning. The potential break-up risks fracturing the MAGA coalition and could affect Trump’s efforts to pass his “big beautiful” spending agenda (which Musk has called “an abomination.”) And if things get really ugly, could Musk actually start a third party?
Russia responds “very strongly”
Russia haspounded Ukraine with airstrikes over the past 24 hours, in response to Kyiv’s recent drone attacks which crippled a third of Russia’s strategic bombers. The ferocious exchange comes after Ukraine-Russia talks earlier this month went nowhere: Kyiv wants an unconditional ceasefire, Russia wants only a partial one. Trump, who spoke with Putin this week and warned that Russia would respond “very strongly”, said yesterday the two sides, already at full-scale war since 2022, may “need to fight for a while.”
Bangladesh to hold elections next spring.
Bangladesh, a South Asian country of 173 million people, will hold national elections in April 2026, the country’s de facto prime minister, Muhammad Yunus, announced on Friday. The textile-exporting nation has been without an elected leader since a student uprising last August forced then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee to India. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party had pushed for an election this December, but Yunus said he wanted to ensure a free and fair electoral process before sending voters to the polls.US President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
Trump speaks with Xi
US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke Thursday for the first time since the former returned to office, as a recent pause in their trade war looked set to fall apart. Both sides recently stepped back from mutual triple-digit tariffs, but Beijing has drawn fire from Trump for restricting the export of rare earths minerals used by the US auto and tech industries. No breakthroughs were announced but Trump described the call as “very positive” and said a summit is in the works.
Netanyahu’s coalition set for divorce
In what could spell the end for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, two ultra-Orthodox parties that form part of the governing coalition are reportedly set to back the Knesset’s dissolution, in protest against a potential new law that would fine religious university students who skip military service. The dissolution vote will take place on June 11. If United Torah Judaism and Shas, the two dissenting parties, join the opposition in voting to dissolve the government, there will be elections again in Israel.
US institutes new travel ban
Trump on Wednesday barred foreign nationals from 12 countries from entering the United States – including Afghanistan and Haiti – and placed partial restrictions on seven others. The ban is set to take effect on Monday 12:01 EST. The US president linked the new restrictions to Sunday’s terror attack in Colorado against a group of people who were marching in solidarity for the Israeli hostages in Gaza. Trump implemented a similar travel ban during his first term, one that the Supreme Court upheld in 2018.
On Ian Bremmer’s World In 60 Seconds: Ian breaks down the rift between President Trump and Elon Musk over Trump’s “big beautiful bill”, Mexico’s democratic backslide, and South Korea's new leadership.
Ian's takeaways:
On Trump-Musk feud: “I think Elon is mad at a bunch of stuff right now. And as we know, he's not exactly stable in how he puts his views out as he has them.”
On Mexico’s judicial reform: “It’s really bad for democracy… and leads to a lot more corruption.”
On South Korea’s new leadership: “He (Lee Jae-myung) says he wants to govern as a centrist, but I suspect he’s going to govern more to the left.”
Beijing's Tiananmen Square on June 4, 2025, the 36th anniversary of China's Tiananmen Square crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators.
36: Today marks the 36th anniversary of China’s deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protesters occupying Tiananmen Square on June 4th, 1989. The death toll from the day remains disputed, though certain groups have put it in the thousands. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio commemorated the crackdown yesterday, incurring the wrath of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry.
200: More than 200 inmates escaped a Pakistani prison in Karachi, a city of more than 20 million people, on Tuesday after a series of earthquakes damaged the facility. Early reports say police have re-arrested 80 of the inmates, meaning 120 or so remained at large.
4: “I want to see the tax cuts made permanent, but I also want to see the $5 trillion in new debt removed from the bill. At least4 of us in the Senate feel this way.” That’s the comment US Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) made on X on Tuesday about President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” If four Republican senators vote no on the bill, it will fail.
2: On Tuesday, two Chinese nationals were accused of smuggling a fungus into the United States that officials say is a potentially “dangerous biological pathogen.” The US Attorney’s Office in the eastern district of Michigan cites scientific reports that call this fungus a “potential agroterrorism weapon” that can destroy wheat, barley, maize and rice crops — and can sicken those who eat contaminated products.