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What We’re Watching: School shooting in Austria, Duterte impeachment update, Crapo shoots for the moon
Police in and around a high school in Graz, Austria, after a gunman killed nine people at the school, on June 10, 2025.
Shooter kills nine at Austrian school
A gunman killed at least nine people at a school in Graz, Austria, on Tuesday, in what appears to be the worst school shooting in the country’s post-war history. The 21-year-old suspect, who was an ex-student of the school, reportedly took his own life. Austria has relatively liberal gun laws, compared to some other European countries, so we’ll be watching to see if this tragedy prompts any debate about tighter restrictions.
Could Duterte nab an impeachment reprieve?
The Philippines Senate on Tuesday sent impeachment articles against Vice President Sara Duterte back to the House for constitutional clarifications. It’s a reprieve for Duterte, who faces impeachment on allegations of high crimes, including a plot to kill her political (and dynastic) rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The stakes are high: if impeached, Duterte could be blocked from running for president in 2028. The political blowback could be severe, thoug: The vice president’s party outperformed expectations in last month’s midterm elections.
Trump’s Big Bill is now a Crapo-shoot
All eyes in Washington are today on Sen. Mike Crapo, Republican from Idaho who, as chairman of the Finance Committee, will be marking up President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax-and-spending bill. Crapo has his work cut out: A cadre of budget hawk GOP senators have called for cuts to the spending outlined in the House-passed version of the bill, while others are worried that any significant savings will come at the expense of Medicaid or other popular programs. Rock, meet hard place: Over to you, Mike.
Members of US and Russian delegations, led by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin, attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have called for direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul this Thursday.
Behind these calls for talks, though, is a battle over whether the US will continue funding Zelensky’s army.
Here’s the bottom-line: Putin won’t stop the war. He hopes instead that US President Donald Trump will grow frustrated (or bored) with the quagmire and withdraw support for Kyiv. That, Putin believes, would allow Russia to seize more of Ukraine.
Zelensky will keep calling for a ceasefire to persuade Trump – who toyed with the idea of coming to Istanbul on Thursday – that Putin’s the problem, in hopes of keeping some US support in place.
In the Philippines, Duterte edges latest edition of family feud
The battle for power in the Philippines is fought between two families: the Marcoses and Dutertes. Monday’s midterm elections favored the latter.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s partners look set to retain the Senate, but allies of Vice President Sara Duterte – who faces an impeachment trial – won more seats than expected. Duterte’s conviction is now less of a surefire bet.
In spite of the politics, House Republicans seek extra Medicaid requirements
When one House committee released its plan for adjusting Medicaid, it omitted the cuts that some ardent deficit hawks in the Republican Party sought. However, it still includes changes that could leave millions of recipients uncovered.
Politically, this is a risky move – polls show huge support for the welfare program. Fiscal conservatives in the GOP, though, will feel that the party must do it now, while they hold unified control of Congress.
A voter casting a ballot in front of the Philippines flag.
The Philippines will hold midterm elections on May 12, with all 317 seats in the House of Representatives, half the 24-member Senate, and various provincial, city, and municipal positions up for grabs. The winners will take office on June 30, with terms of six years for the senators and three years for all other officeholders.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hopes to maintain his control of Congress as he seeks to advance his legislative agenda and expand his influence at the expense of former president Rodrigo Duterte’s political faction. In July, the new Senate will hold an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who is the former president’s daughter and has repeatedly clashed with Marcos.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford what to watch for in this weekend’s vote.
What are the most important races?
The focus is really on the 12 Senate seats up for election; the House tends to align with the sitting president regardless of its composition. Marcos’s coalition currently consists of six parties in the Senate and nine in the House. Political parties have long been weak in the Philippines, so the concept of a “majority” is very fluid, especially in the Senate, which often acts independently of the president. Officially, the Senate is broken down into “majority bloc,” “minority bloc,” and independents – but “majority” refers to those senators who support the Senate president. This maps roughly, but not precisely, onto the coalition supporting Marcos (or not). There are members of the same party in both the majority and minority blocs, for example. It is therefore easier, but more subjective, to map out the senators who support Marcos and those who do not.
So, what are the stakes in the Senate races?
There are two main implications. First, and more significant for Marcos’s agenda, is whether Marcos retains majority support in the upper house; failure to do so would make it harder to pass proposed economic legislation, including a power sector overhaul aimed at lowering high electricity prices and modest revenue-raising measures designed to trim the large budget deficit and provide more resources for social spending priorities. Second, Duterte-Carpio’s political future is at stake following her impeachment by the House earlier this year on charges of high crimes related to death threats against the president and betrayal of public trust related to alleged misuse of intelligence funds (please see more below).
What are the most important issues for voters heading into these elections?
Surveys show that cost-of-living concerns are by far the biggest issue for voters. The Philippines has been grappling with relatively high inflation in recent years, with food prices a particular concern; price rises have slowed in recent months but that has not yet translated into shifts in public opinion. According to a recent poll, 79% of Filipinos disapprove of the administration’s efforts to control inflation, with just 3% approving. After cost-of-living, voters’ main concerns are pay, corruption, crime, and poverty.
How do the candidates propose to address these concerns?
They have made generic promises about tackling poverty but offered little in terms of specific measures. Philippine elections, especially those for congress, are primarily driven by the personalities and name recognition of the candidates. Many voters will be casting their ballots on the basis of who they know and like, rather than the policy or ideological views of the candidates. It’s worth noting that six of the top 12 candidates in polls are show business personalities; another popular figure is the former boxer Manny Pacquiao, a senator who is running for reelection.
How does the feud between the Marcos and Duterte clans play into election dynamics?
The battle for influence between the country’s two most powerful political dynasties sets the backdrop for the midterms. The upcoming polls will not have an impact on how long Marcos serves as president: He is bound by a single six-year term limit and is very unlikely to be impeached or removed by a coup before his terms ends in 2028. But the outcome of the upcoming Senate poll will determine whether Duterte-Carpio is removed from office and banned from running for public office again. Duterte-Carpio is the early favorite for the 2028 presidential election and the Marcos clan likely hopes she is prevented from running, making it easier for a member of the president’s family or another ally to succeed him.
Duterte-Carpio’s Senate trial is due to begin in late July. If two-thirds (16) of the senators vote against the vice president, she will be removed from office and probably barred from holding other government offices in the future (there is some debate about whether the latter would automatically apply if she is found guilty). She needs only nine senators to vote against or abstain. In addition, the outlook is complicated by the fact that some senators counted in the “pro-Marcos” majority, as they tend to support the administration’s bills, are actually closer to the Dutertes and will likely oppose her removal. That said, the president could press allies to vote against her.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
How do you believe that the Trump presidency will influence elections in Europe?
Well, of course we don't know. But what we've seen during the last week with important elections in Canada and Australia, not Europe, but fairly similar in other ways, is that the Trump factor has been very important. It has boosted the incumbent governments. It has boosted the center-left. It has boosted those who are seen as standing up to American pressure, and thus produced results both in Canada, primarily in Canada, but also in Australia. Very different from what practically everyone expected a couple of months ago.
Europe, different place. But still we have two important elections coming up, within slightly more than 10 days. We have the first round of the presidential election in Poland. That's very important for the future possibilities of the Tusk government to continue reforming that particular country. And we have the second round of the presidential election in Romania. An important country often forgotten. But there of course, we had gross interference from Russia and TikTok, and a candidate was banned. In both of these cases, we see the Trump presidency acting. They received, in the White House the other day, the opposition candidate. The extreme right nationalist opposition candidate the other day. And they've been making distinct noises in favor of the same political alternative in Romania. Will this backfire in the way it did in Canada, Australia? Remains to be seen. Very important elections both of them. Watch this space.
Crowds gather outside Buckingham Palace to watch a fly-past by the Red Arrows on the 80th anniversary of VE Day in London, United Kingdom, on May 05, 2025.
1,300: On Monday, the United Kingdom started celebrating the 80th anniversary of VE Day, which commemorates the Allied victory of World War II, with a slew of street and tea parties across the country. There was also a 1,300-strong military procession along the Mall, the stretch of road connecting Buckingham Palace and Trafalgar Square. One million people flooded the area on the original VE Day, May 8, 1945.
13 billion: Donald Trump’s tariff bonanza induced a huge amount of stock market volatility, and the largest European investment banks are pleased as punch. This week, UBS, BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank posted their largest quarterly revenues in over a decade, reporting a combined €13 billion ($14.7 billion) from equities and fixed income in the first quarter of the year. The stellar performance mirrors the hefty revenues that their American counterparts gathered in the first three months of 2025.
$60 million: Maybe there’s no escape from Alcatraz: Donald Trump wants to reopen the island prison, which was shut in 1963. “The reopening of ALCATRAZ will serve as a symbol of Law, Order, and JUSTICE,” the president wrote on social media. The prison, which sits just over a mile off the coast in the San Francisco Bay, once housed the notorious mobster Al Capone. It is currently operated by the National Park Service, which hosts 1.6 million visitors a year, generating roughly $60 million in revenue.
$75,000: New York City hosted the Met Gala on Monday night. Individiual tickets sold for a cool $75,000, with the money raised going to the Museum’s Costume Institute. Some have used the gala to spread political messages, like when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) wore a dress with the message, “Tax the Rich,” to the 2021 iteration.
540 million: The governments of Australia and New Zealand vowed to protect their film industries after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on foreign films. The Oceanic pair have become a popular filming spot for Hollywood filmmakers, in part thanks to lower costs and government tax incentives. Australia alone has spent AU$540 million ($349.4 million) since 2019 to attract international film productions.
U.S. President Donald Trump salutes as he attends the annual White House Easter Egg Roll, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on April 21, 2025.
30,000: Rising egg prices don’t seem to have hit the White House, as nearly 30,000 real eggs adorned the White House lawn Monday morning for the 147th annual Easter egg roll. Donald Trump paid tribute to Pope Francis, defended embattled US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and shared photos with the Easter bunny.
1: Hey ChatGPT, can you propose some new legislation for the United Arab Emirates? Yes, the Emirati nation plans to become the first country to harness the power of artificial intelligence to propose new legislation.
875: Out of the roughly 1,000 National Institute for Occupational Safety and Healthjobs, the Trump administration has cut 875 of them as part of its broader effort to slash the number of federal employees. This move could especially harm former coal miners – who often suffer from lung disease – as NIOSH has helped them find work outside the mines.
14,000: More than 14,000 American and Filipino soldiers – 9,000 from the US, 5,000 from the Philippines – are participating in a “full battle test” this year, amid mounting tensions in the South China Sea. The coordinated drill will also feature soldiers from Australia, Canada, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The exercise, which started on Monday, will run for three weeks.
$3,400: An age-gold problem: The price of gold surpassed $3,400 on Monday amid fears over the future of the global economy and concerns for the Federal Reserve’s independence. A year ago today, the price of gold was at $2,384.
$3,000: A thief swiped US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s bag while she was having dinner in Washington, DC, on Sunday night, taking her passport, makeup bag, checkbook, and $3,000 in cash. Police officers have not yet caught the thief, believed to be a white male.Human rights activists hold a placard reading 'Military is a Killer of Women' during Aksi Kamisan, or Thursday's Protest, in front of the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta, Indonesia, on March 20, 2025.
Indonesian activists are protesting a new law allowing active-duty military members to serve an expanded role in the civilian government — a move they warn could bring back the days of military repression under strongman leader Suharto.
Indonesia’s current president, Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo, is a former general who served as minister of defense under former President Joko Widodo. He is accused of serious human rights abuses, including participation in massacres in East Timor and forced disappearances of pro-democracy activists.
In power since October, Prabowo has already worked to integrate the military deeper into governance. Amendments to the 2004 Law on the Indonesian Armed Forces, which parliament passed unanimously on Thursday, allow active duty military officers to hold positions in 14 different government institutions. Previously, they were only allowed to serve in institutions related to defense and national security, but now they’ll be able to serve in institutions like the attorney general’s office and the Supreme Court.
Prabowo’s election last year raised concerns about democratic backsliding in the country. But Indonesians have responded to the latest move: Hundreds went to the parliament building on Thursday to protest the new legislation and to demand that the military and civilian government remain separate.