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What We’re Watching: Trump and Musk feud, Russia retaliates, Bangladesh sets elections
Will Trump and Musk kiss and make up?
The extraordinary public feud between US President Donald Trump and his former government efficiency czar Elon Musk continues. Despite late night reports that the two alphas were seeking detente, Trump was reportedly unwilling to engage with Musk again on Friday morning. The potential break-up risks fracturing the MAGA coalition and could affect Trump’s efforts to pass his “big beautiful” spending agenda (which Musk has called “an abomination.”) And if things get really ugly, could Musk actually start a third party?
Russia responds “very strongly”
Russia haspounded Ukraine with airstrikes over the past 24 hours, in response to Kyiv’s recent drone attacks which crippled a third of Russia’s strategic bombers. The ferocious exchange comes after Ukraine-Russia talks earlier this month went nowhere: Kyiv wants an unconditional ceasefire, Russia wants only a partial one. Trump, who spoke with Putin this week and warned that Russia would respond “very strongly”, said yesterday the two sides, already at full-scale war since 2022, may “need to fight for a while.”
Bangladesh to hold elections next spring.
Bangladesh, a South Asian country of 173 million people, will hold national elections in April 2026, the country’s de facto prime minister, Muhammad Yunus, announced on Friday. The textile-exporting nation has been without an elected leader since a student uprising last August forced then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee to India. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party had pushed for an election this December, but Yunus said he wanted to ensure a free and fair electoral process before sending voters to the polls.Hard Numbers: Trump issues sweeping travel ban, BoC holds rates steady, US funds “self-deportations,” and more...
US President Donald Trump speaks as he attends a “Summer Soiree” held on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on June 4, 2025.
12: US President Donald Trump has banned visitors to the US from 12 countries: Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Another seven countries will face greater restrictions. The ban, which Trump based on national security grounds, takes effect on Monday.
2.75: The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate steady for the second time in a row, leaving it at 2.75% amid uncertainty about the extent and effect of US tariff increases. The bank said it may still cut rates later this year if the economy continues to struggle.
20: US intelligence believes Ukraine’s expansive drone attack on Russian airfields last weekend struck just 20 planes, destroying 10 – half the numbers claimed by Kyiv. Still, the damage was significant and Russia will respond “very strongly,” according to Trump, who spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday.
$250 million: The US State Department has earmarked $250 million to cover travel expenses for migrants without legal status who chose to “self-deport.” The money has been repurposed from funds previously used to aid refugees.
31: Oilers forward Leon Draisatl scored with 31 seconds left in the first extra period, to give Edmonton a comeback win in game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals against the defending champ Florida Panthers. As many of our readers will be (painfully) aware, a Canadian team hasn’t won the cup since 1993.
In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt provides an update on the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Bildt highlights Ukraine’s recent drone strikes on Russian bomber bases that was “beyond what you see in James Bond movies.” The bold Ukrainian operation comes amid a shifting geopolitical landscape that may be encouraging Russia to double down. Bildt notes that Russia’s maximalist demands and Trump’s apparent withdrawal of pressure on Putin have emboldened Moscow to continue military operations. Bildt warns, “we are facing further tragic months of war in the East of Europe."
Zelensky and Putin in front of flags and war.
The combined message from Kyiv could not have been clearer: we may be far smaller and – on paper at least – weaker, but we can strike hard and reach far into Russia. Using drones produced indigenously for less than the cost of an iPhone, Ukraine took out strategic bombers worth upward of $100 million each – many of which are nearly impossible to replace due to sanctions and Russia’s degraded industrial base. At a 300,000-to-one return on investment, this is the kind of asymmetric operation that can upend the rules of modern warfare.
Just as significant as the material damage is what the attacks revealed: that a small but determined and innovative nation can deploy cheap, scalable, and decentralized tech to challenge a much larger, conventionally superior foe – and even degrade elements of a nuclear superpower’s second-strike capacity. The lessons will reverberate globally, from Taipei to Islamabad.
Perhaps the biggest impact of Ukraine’s battlefield coup may be to challenge the core strategic presumption that has guided Vladimir Putin’s thinking for over three years: that time is on his side. Since the invasion began, Putin has bet on outlasting Ukraine – grinding down its defenses, draining Western support, and waiting for the political winds in Washington and Europe to shift. That assumption has underpinned his refusal to negotiate seriously. But the success of Ukraine’s drone and sabotage operations challenges that theory of victory. It shows that Ukraine is not simply holding the line or surviving a war of attrition; it is shifting the battlefield and expanding the costs of continued war for Russia in ways the Kremlin has not anticipated.
That shift matters, especially in the diplomatic context. The timing of the drone campaign – just 24 hours before a direct round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul – was hardly coincidental. Kyiv’s actions were designed to signal that Ukraine is not negotiating from a position of weakness and won’t be coerced into a bad deal. Though the Istanbul meeting itself was predictably fruitless – lasting just over an hour and reinforcing the irreconcilability of the two sides’ positions – the fact that the Kremlin showed up fresh off such a high-profile embarrassment suggests it may be starting to realize that Ukraine has cards to play and continuing the war carries risks for Russia.
This may not be enough to bring Russia to the negotiating table in good faith, but it could make it more open to limited agreements. To be sure, a permanent peace settlement remains as distant as ever. Kyiv continues to push for an unconditional ceasefire that Russia rejects out of hand. In Istanbul, Moscow proposed two equally unacceptable alternatives: either Kyiv retreats from Russian-claimed territories or accepts limits on its ability to rearm, including a halt to Western military aid. But the right kind of pressure from the United States, coordinated with European allies, could now stand a better chance of extracting a first-phase deal – whether that’s a 30-day ceasefire, a humanitarian corridor, or a prisoner swap – that could then potentially turn into something bigger and more durable.
At the same time, Ukraine’s gains increase the tail risks of dangerous escalation. Russia’s deterrent posture has been eroded. Putin’s red lines – on NATO enlargement, Western weapons use, attacks inside Russia – have been crossed repeatedly without serious consequence. That makes him look weak but also increases the risk that he will feel compelled to escalate the conflict more dramatically to restore his credibility at home and abroad.
Russia’s immediate response to the recent attacks will be more of the same: heavier indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. But a darker possibility is that, boxed in and humiliated, Putin might consider a tactical nuclear strike. The threshold for such an extreme step is high – not least because China, Russia’s most important global partner, strongly opposes nuclear use. That scenario remains unlikely, but less so than before June 1. And Putin is emboldened by the belief that the West – particularly Trump – fears direct military confrontation more than anything. If he assesses that Russia’s position in the war is becoming untenable or its conventional deterrence is crumbling, his calculus could change.
Ukraine has just reminded the Kremlin – and the world – that it can shape events, not just react to them. This doesn’t put it on a path to victory or bring the war to an end. But by showing that it has leverage and that Moscow has more to lose than it thought, Ukraine has altered the strategic equation and opened a narrow window for diplomacy – even if the endgame remains as elusive as ever. The alternative is a deeper and more unpredictable conflict that grows more dangerous the longer it drags on.
Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strike deep inside Russian territory destroyed up to 20 aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers and early warning systems.
Ian Bremmer calls it “one of the most extraordinary asymmetric attacks in modern warfare,” raising urgent questions about Russia’s nuclear deterrence and the global balance of power.
Powered by a homegrown drone program and diaspora technologists, Ukraine’s low-cost innovation dealt a massive blow to Moscow’s high-value assets. Ian draws parallels to Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah, showing how modern warfare is being redefined.
“The dangers are not just to the Ukrainian people—the dangers are increasingly global,” warns Ian.
What We’re Watching this week: Poland retains a right-wing president, UN Security Council to vote on new members, & More
Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, flanked by his family, during an election night rally in Warsaw, Poland, on June 1, 2025.
A conservative comeback in Poland
In a major blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s hopes of finally enacting his liberal and pro-Europe agenda, Law and Justice-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki defeated liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski in the final round of Poland’s presidential election. Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote in the head-to-head runoff. His win means a conservative will retain the presidency – Andrzej Duda had served for the previous decade – so there will continue to be a cap on what Tusk can achieve, given the president’s veto power.
Five new countries to enter the UN Security Council villa
The United Nations Security Council on Tuesday will elect five new temporary members to serve for the next two years, with Algeria, Guyana, South Korea, Sierra Leone, and Slovenia each set to end their terms this year. The 15-member council, which has five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States — tries to soothe global disputes, but has faced criticism for its failure to reform.
Guess who’s back?
The US Senate is back in session after its two-week Memorial Day hiatus, and it has something major on its docket: Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Before the break, the House passed the bill by a single vote, but Republicans in the upper chamber have already said they’d like to make some alterations. If they do, the House will have to vote on the bill again. Penny for your thoughts, Speaker Mike Johnson?What We’re Watching: Polling day for Poland, China courts Pacific Islanders, Russia readies more troops
Crowds at a rally for Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, the Law and Justice candidate, on May 29, 2025.
Poles go to the polls
On Sunday, conservative Karol Nawrocki and liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski will face off in the second round of Poland’s presidential election. There isn’t a clear favorite. A Trzaskowski win would give Prime Minister Donald Tusk a key ally for both his domestic reform plans and stable relations with the EU, while victory for Nawrocki would saddle Tusk with a determined political enemy who can block his legislative agenda.
China courts Pacific Islanders
At a gathering in Xiamen, China, on Thursday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told top diplomats from 11 Pacific Island nations that Beijing will provide $2 million to help them adapt to climate change and speed negotiation of trade deals that would open Chinese markets to more of their exports. A joint statement following the meeting did not mention US President Donald Trump by name, but it did stress there are “no political strings attached to China’s assistance, no imposing one’s will onto others, and no empty promises.” Who needs subtlety?
Russia preparing its expected offensive?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Thursday that Russia has massed 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s Sumy region, an area Moscow hasn’t threatened since the early days of the war. It is widely expected that Russia will launch a major offensive this summer to try to seize more territory and degrade Ukrainian defenses in advance of talks to end the war. It’s not yet clear whether Russia is simply creating a buffer zone to protect its Kursk region from future Ukrainian attack or it intends to expand the war into Sumy.