Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado says Maduro's days are numbered

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you can find extended versions of my conversations on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today I am joined by the most prominent opposition leader in Venezuela. María Corina Machado has a long political history as a center-right opposition figure in Venezuela, but she became the de facto leader of that opposition during the presidential election last summer. That's when the regime-friendly electoral council declared Maduro the winner, despite widespread allegations of fraud and international condemnation from the United States and Europe.

But this is more than just a Venezuela story. It's an American one too. The Biden era saw an unprecedented influx of Venezuelan migrants to sanctuary cities under President Trump's administration. So far, thousands of Venezuelans have been arrested, many already deported. Some of them purported gang members shipped off to a black hole of a prison in El Salvador. And in recent weeks, president Trump has canceled Venezuelan oil licenses and threatened steep sanctions and tariffs on Maduro's regime. Those are moves that my guest today, María Corina Machado, very much supports. We'll talk about all of that and more.

So let's get to it. Here's my conversation with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado.

María Corina Machado, welcome to GZERO World.

María Corina Machado:

Thank you very much. It's my pleasure.

Ian Bremmer:

So I know that you can't tell me exactly where you are right now, but you are in Venezuela in hiding as befits the situation. Tell me what life is like in Venezuela for the average person today.

María Corina Machado:

Well, the life in Venezuela, it's getting tougher and tougher by the day. The regime, as you know, has lost all popular support. The economic and social crisis has been deteriorating dramatically in the last months. It's simply not only a conventional dictatorship goes beyond. I mean, this is a criminal structure that has decided to rob and sack the country to stay in power. And since they were defeated by a landslide under their own unfair rules in the presidential election, just last July 28th, the regime has unleashed the worst repression wave we've ever seen with more than 2,000 people in prison, including children and women. Several tens of Venezuelans tortured and disappeared. And actually everybody that speaks out to tell the truth is immediately accused of terrorism and sent to jail. That's why I am in hiding right now.

Ian Bremmer:

How safe is it for you to actually stay in the country going forward?

María Corina Machado:

Well, Maduro has been very clear. He said I should be in prison for life. They have threatened all my teams and colleagues. They're either in prison or in hiding or in exile or under asylum. They have gone also against our families pressuring, threatening. And as I say, I've been accused of every single criminal crime you can think of just because we were able to defeat the regime and prove our victory. And we are never going to give up on the country. We are organizing, even though in hiding and with security measures, all our teams around the country because we will go until the end. And that means Maduro will have to leave power and we will advance in a transition to democracy. We're not giving up.

Ian Bremmer:

I appreciate your courageousness. He's, of course, managed to achieve a third term in power. Even though everyone, the Americans, the Europeans, others around the world have said that there were enormous irregularities. It wasn't in any way a free and fair election. He stole the outcome. Why do you believe, I mean, you've argued that his control is more tenuous than ever. For someone that doesn't spend much time focusing on Venezuela, it might look like actually his control is stronger than ever, that he's like Putin or he's like Xi Jinping or any of these other leaders that refuse to have normal elections. Why do you think he's weak?

María Corina Machado:

Well, actually, that's what the regime needs to portray. They need the world to think that they are stronger when in fact it's quite the opposite. It's not just that we won an election by a small margin. I mean, this was 70/30 under conditions that you would have never accepted to compete in the first moment because we all knew that this was absolutely controlled by the regime. But they were surprised by the kind of organization mobilization that we put in place. Not only we won by a 40 point margin, percentile margin, but we proved our victory for the first time ever with the official tally sheets demonstrating our result.

And the response from the regime was never to publish one single number. They just decided Maduro stays by force. And what effect did this have that even Maduro's previous allies, international allies have not recognized that he won anything because he lost and everybody knows it. So he's completely isolated internationally. Who used to be Maduro's support? Syria. Where is it right now, the regime? Russia, Iran, Cuba, Hezbollah. I mean, these were the kinds of allies Maduro was counting on a few months ago.

Secondly, the social pressure, and as I mentioned before, the collapse of our economy has grown in a very accelerated pace. And this obviously also reflects on what is to be Maduro's support the military and the police. I can tell you that mid-ranks to low-ranks all want desperately a political change as much as we do. And you can see that also in the kinds of tensions and fractures that are taking place among the different criminal groups that conform the regime.

And finally, I have to say, recent decisions by President Trump in terms of addressing the regime as a criminal structure with a low enforcement approach. It's something that has brought huge concern among those that still support Maduro because they know that the resources into this criminal structure will be reduced significantly. And this creates, as I mentioned before, concentration among these criminal structures.

Ian Bremmer:

What are the indications inside the country right now that he is becoming more isolated? Do you see anything that you can share with us in terms of behavior of the public, behavior of associates of Maduro, the military, the police, the judges, the media? I mean, any indications that actually the opposition led by you, Maria, is having success?

María Corina Machado:

Well, there are several, certainly indications. I think we are in an initial stage after, as I mentioned, different or recent announcements by the international community and Trump's administration specifically.

One of them is that we're starting to see growing expressions of protests, social protests because of lack of services: water, electricity shortage, the possibility to move in transportation, the absolute collapse of the health system and so on. I mean, you have to think that a teacher today in Venezuela earns $1 a day. Pensions are less than $3 a month. I mean, this is absolutely disastrous for what the people are living.

And this is starting to grow in an environment of terror. And I want to be very clear with this. Even if you tweet or you put in your WhatsApp chat something that the regime identifies, you will be put into prison and a scandal will be done so that it serves as an example to other individuals. So even within this environment of terror and the propaganda machine the regime uses, there is not one single media outlet or journalist that lives in Venezuela and dares to say the truth. But even in that environment, you are starting to see how this growing and growing. And I have to say that in the last days, different people have been reaching out to us from different sectors trying to, or starting to talk about how a transition could be put in place and what kind of incentives these individuals could get in order to facilitate this process. So we are, I would say, in an initial stage, but I think this is accelerating significantly.

Ian Bremmer:

When the United States has decided in recent weeks to suspend some of the oil licenses that, I mean, the Biden administration was trying both a carrot and stick approach in an effort to bring about a more transparent election process that obviously failed. The Trump administration with some notable hawks on Venezuela, like in particular, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, we've seen an effort to put more pressure on Venezuela. Are you happy with what you've seen from the Trump administration on your country so far? And what else do you think they should be doing?

María Corina Machado:

Well, I think things are moving in the right direction. I think much more should be done. First of all, because as I said before, this is not a conventional dictatorship. Venezuela has been turned into the criminal hub of the Americas. I mean a safe haven for cartels, guerrilla, ELN, the Colombian guerrilla, networks of smuggling, even women and children being used for these networks of prostitution. This is dramatic. I mean, the gold smuggling and the presence even of terrorist agents of such as Hezbollah and Hamas has been proven.

So I do think that Venezuela is a threat to the security of the Western hemisphere and should be addressed as such, I said, with a low enforcement approach. So every criminal organization grows and maintains its activities as long as they get resources, the flows of money. If these flows are reduced, then these structures start to fight between them and fracture. And that's precisely what's starting to happen right now after these licenses were revoked.

And the point here is that Maduro needs to understand that this is not sustainable. That the world won't look the other way around because they have committed crimes against humanity. This is practices of terrorism of state as every single human rights NGO around the world has proven, and that we, the Venezuelan people, won't stop fighting. So I do think the international community can do a lot more. I speak about Europe and other countries, and even in Latin America in terms of raising the cost of repression so that those that today torture, disappear, and kill Venezuelans, get it very clear that they will be held accountable and give incentives so that we increase the cost of staying in power by force, but also give incentives for our peaceful and orderly transition. That's where we should move forward.

Ian Bremmer:

The United States, of course, is the most powerful country, not only in terms of Venezuela specifically, but also in the region. So I mean, it's America's policies that are going to have the greatest impact. I wonder, again, I appreciate what you've said, but specifically, what else do you think the United States should be doing going forward that would make a meaningful difference in Venezuela's inability to continue the repression of its government?

María Corina Machado:

Well first of all I think from a financial perspective, enforce those decisions. I mean, make sure that decisions that were announced on the executive orders of President Trump regarding the oil licenses are effectively enforced. Secondly, I believe financial enablers of the regime should be identified and neutralized. And thirdly, I think that as I mentioned before, the flows that come from criminal activities, drug trafficking, gold smuggling, and others, you know, money laundering should be also identified and reduced.

On the other hand, there is a lot of information that the US judicial system as well as other countries have regarding the criminal nature of the regime and the crimes they have committed. Most of this is not being unsealed yet. That's the kind of information we need to know. And finally, I think that those that today sustain the regime can be individually addressed in order to let them know that there are guarantees for their safety and incentives for those that are willing to support a transition to democracy. I think these are concrete things that should be put in place very soon. And I think they are moving in that direction, by the way.

Ian Bremmer:

So we know that thousands and thousands of Venezuelans have come into the United States illegally, nowhere close to the numbers that Colombia has been dealing with, but still significant illegal migration problem. Hundreds of those Venezuelans have now been deported and sent to some of the most notorious prisons in the world in El Salvador. And there are reports that not all of those that have been deported are actually gang members. I'm wondering how you feel about that deportation process. Is this an appropriate decision to be made with Venezuelan citizens by the United States?

María Corina Machado:

Well, this is a very complex process, and as you say, of course, we are concerned for every Venezuelan abroad. I have to say that almost the totality of Venezuelans that have left are good, hardworking people. But certainly there are a group that has been used by the regime intentionally sent abroad to create destabilization in the region. I'm sure you just saw the denouncement by President Boric's government at the ICC, International Criminal Court, in which they have proofs that Maduro and Cabello were directly involved in the murder of a lieutenant that was in Santiago last year, living in Santiago last year. I mean this is a proof that the regime gives orders to the Tren de Aragua gang that is being used as an armed arm of the cartel de Los Soles, who is as well directed by Maduro and the regime top officials.

So the other side of this story or this drama, I would say, Ian, is that many of those that are being sent to Venezuela that are linked to the regime and that are criminals are immediately integrated to the regime repression structures. Sending them back to Venezuela means that they're going to either re-establish their crimes here and repress Venezuelan citizens, or are going to be sent back abroad. So those criminals that are proven to have linked to these criminal networks, such as Tren de Aragua, who is linked to Maduro and who receives orders from Maduro, I believe should not be sent back to Venezuela at this moment.

Ian Bremmer:

Despite the fact that Venezuela is increasingly isolated and very few countries recognized this new government, they are continuing to get a lot of support from China, which is willing to buy a lot of oil from Venezuela. They're continuing to get a lot of support from Russia, which President Trump is more interested in re-establishing relations. When you look at the rest of the world, you are not seeing today as much as I know you'd like to see otherwise, you're not seeing a move towards strengthening democracy. You're seeing a move towards authoritarian regimes doing better, and democracy is getting weaker. Tell me why Venezuela is going to be the exception to that.

María Corina Machado:

Not only the exception, the example. I think what we did last year when everybody told me it was impossible to bring back a country together and our feat when we have been so demoralized and divided by the regime, and we were able to go all around the country and create this legion of over one million citizens, volunteers. Because we understood that the only way we could have our children coming back home, the only way we could live with dignity and justice and prosperity, was overcoming this tyranny and creating the democratic institutions for renewal of Venezuela. We are convinced we're going to turn Venezuela from the criminal hub of the Americas into the energy hub of the Americas. Bringing not only opportunities and jobs for the Venezuelan people, but huge, immense, unique opportunities for investment from international business that will not find any other opportunity in this hemisphere as Venezuela represents.

Ian Bremmer:

China, of course, has been historically a big consumer of Venezuelan exports, not so much anymore. Talk to me a little bit about why that is and why Americans don't need to worry that the Chinese are going to take advantage of the US squeezing Venezuela harder.

María Corina Machado:

In Venezuela in the year 2016, China was producing around 70,000 barrels a day. Today that has been decreasing to less than 40,000 a day. China is not interested in investing in Venezuela because it was one of the worst financial decisions to give huge loans to the regime that they have not paid so far. And the country, when you see what's going on in Guyana three years ago, or say six years ago, the production in Guyana of China was zero. Today it's almost 130,000 barrels a day. So it's clear China does not want to deal with a profoundly corrupt inept tyranny such as Maduro. They know him very well.

Ian Bremmer:

It's funny, I meet so many Venezuelans when I'm up in Canada because the geology of the oil patch is very similar. And I got to tell you, it's a lot colder for the Venezuelans up there, but they understand that there's no business for them to do. There's no work for them in your country.

María Corina Machado:

How would anybody invest in a country that is absolutely in the last place in terms of rule of law by the World Justice Project. I'm talking literally the last place. Out of 140 countries that are evaluated around the world, Venezuela is in the last place. So would you lend to a country on that condition? Would you invest? Would you come back and leave? Of course not. And that's why Venezuela is in this desperate situation being the country that has the biggest oil reserves in the world and the eighth in terms of gas reserves in the world. So this is a huge opportunity waiting to be opened, and that's precisely what we are going to do. So we have to align the interests and incentives of all stakeholders, those that want to do business, and those that want security for the hemisphere, and certainly those that care about human rights and the humanitarian crisis.

Ian Bremmer:

So when you go back on Don Trump Jr.'s podcast, please make sure you tell him that he needs to be more supportive of rule of law. That's a lesson that he needs to learn from the Venezuelans too.

María Corina Machado:

Well, we're working in terms of preparing for what's going to be the transition and orderly transition. I want you to know and the world to know that we are ready. We have our teams with high-qualified professionals in every sector, those that are here, those that are working abroad. We know what we have to do the first 100 days to make sure that we can take guarantee, security, basic services. We will care for those populations which is more vulnerable, and certainly we will open markets so that Venezuela can prosper and take advantage of the huge natural resources that we have. And that will not be developed under communism, crime, and dictatorship, but will require an open market and a serious government with strong democratic institutions.

Ian Bremmer:

María Corina Machado, thank you and stay safe.

María Corina Machado:

Thank you very much. My pleasure.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Do you like what you heard? Of course you do. Why not make it official? Why don't you rate and review GZERO World five stars, only five stars. Otherwise, don't do it on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Tell your friends.