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Russia/Ukraine
In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt breaks down Serbia’s evolving foreign policy, and political developments in Poland.
After President Vučić’s visit to Ukraine, Bildt notes, “I think he is in the black book of the Kremlin because of that particular visit,” highlighting shifting alliances in the Balkans.
On Poland, following Donald Tusk’s post-election confidence vote, Bildt explains the challenges ahead: “The president can veto legislation, he can block important appointments.”
As Serbia weighs its EU path and Poland navigates internal politics, Bildt offers timely analysis on regional stability and European security affairs.
East and West German citizens celebrate as they climb the Berlin Wall at the Brandenburg Gate after the opening of the East German border was announced, on November 9, 1989.
– By Willis Sparks
Sometimes I find myself talking with one of my super-smart, well-informed younger acquaintances about some major event from “recent” history. I’ll tell them I remember watching nightly coverage of the fate of Americans held hostage in Tehran by furious Iranian students while I was in high school. Or, sitting on the floor of my grad school apartment, watching live TV coverage of Chinese tanks crushing Chinese protesters, and later of giddy Germans dancing and drinking atop the Berlin Wall. Then there’s the sunny fall morning when a plane struck a tower in lower Manhattan.
Then I remember that the person I’m speaking with wasn’t yet born when most (or any) of these things happened.
Everywhere in the world, succeeding generations have formative experiences that shape their understanding not only of the past but of the present and future. When we think about the politics of various countries today, this “horizon of memory” can help us consider something important about what’s happening and why.
50.5% of Americans are under 40. This means they have little memory of the Cold War, and didn’t grow up with the assumption that America has a “responsibility to lead” on the global stage. If you didn’t experience Cold War hopes and fears firsthand, you might find it odd that US presidents were once called “leader of the free world.”
43.3% of Germans are under 40. I haven’t visited Berlin since there were two of them. I went in the spring of 1990 because I wanted to put my hand on the Wall, to touch history, before it was gone. No German under the age of 40 will remember that surreal historical inflection point or the complex (sometimes contradictory) feelings triggered by Germany’s reunification.
45.9% of Russians and 42.4% of Ukrainians are under 40. No Russian under 40 will remember the Soviet superpower and the daily life that came with it. Even the Mikhail Gorbachev-period that I saw for myself on a visit to Moscow in April 1989 will be largely unfamiliar. Across the border, no Ukrainian under 40 will remember life in an empire ruled from the Kremlin. On both sides of the border, Vladimir Putin’s arguments about Russia’s historic claims to Kyiv land differently with people over 60 than those who are 30.
69.4% of South Africans are under 40. Everyone in that country knows the African National Congress was once the party of liberation. But unless you’re over 40, you likely won’t remember the astonishing day in February 1990 when a smiling Nelson Mandela, imprisoned for 27 years, walked out of his small cell in suit and tie. Nor will you recall the widely shared jolt of raw idealism when he became his country’s president. If you’re under 40, the ANC is the party of power.
64% of Brazilians are under 45. No Brazilian under 45 can remember living under the military dictatorship that was the “Fifth Brazilian Republic,” which lasted from 1964 to 1985. For them, debates over threats to democracy posed by former President Jair Bolsonaro might not resonate as they do for their parents.
78% of Iranians are under 50. No Iranian under 50 will remember life before the revolution that established the Islamic Republic (1979). They know the days of the Shah only through the happy or unhappy memories of their parents and the ideological education they continue to receive.
Without doubt, these events are crucial for all of us. No matter our age today, these are the movements of history on which we build the world around us. But I know my grandparents understood the poverty and fear of the 1930s differently than I ever can. My parents came of age in the peaceful but paranoid 1950s and entered adulthood with the Cuban Missile Crisis.
At 60, I’m blessed to have seen some dramatic historical turning points and to value the perspective they offer. But I’ve also learned that politics, anywhere and everywhere, is impossible to understand without reminders of our horizons of memory — and respect for the assumptions, beliefs, and aspirations of those who’ve engaged the wider world since.
What memories of historical events have shaped your worldview? Let us know here, and if you include your name and where you’re writing from we may include your response in an upcoming edition.Hard Numbers: Polish PM’s gamble pays off, UK sanctions Israeli government ministers, Taiwan indicts Chinese “spies”, and more
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reacts after a vote of confidence for his center-left coalition government, in Warsaw, Poland, June 11, 2025.
33: Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk survived a no-confidence measure on Wednesday by a margin of 33 votes in the 460 seat legislature. Tusk had called the vote himself in a bid to reinforce his mandate after an ally of his lost the presidential election to a rightwing challenger late last month.
4: Taiwanese prosecutors indicted four former members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party over allegations of spying for China. One of the alleged suspects worked as an assistant to former Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, who is now the secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council.
0.1%: The US’ annual inflation index rose by 0.1 points from 2.3% last month—an early indication that Trump’s tariffs are having only a modest impact on consumer prices so far.
5: Five western countries – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK – imposed sanctions on two of Israel’s far-right ministers on Tuesday, accusing Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich of “inciting extremist violence” in the West Bank and denying essential aid to Palestinians in Gaza. Israel’s foreign minister Gideon Saar pledged a response to the “outrageous” move.
40%: US National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharyadefended his agency during a Senate hearing on Tuesday after the Trump administration proposed a 40% budget cut to it. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) slammed the proposed cuts, which would lower the NIH’s total budget to $27.5 billion for the next fiscal year.
1,200: Russia and Ukraine began a major prisoner swap earlier this week, with each side expected to hand over at least 1,200 prisoners. However, prospects for a ceasefire remain distant: Kyiv and Moscow have exchanged ferocious aerial assaults in recent days.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, on the day he is sworn in as secretary of Health and Human Service in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
17: In an unprecedented move, US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired all 17 members of the vaccine advisory committee at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday. While Kennedy defended the “clean sweep” as necessary to restore public trust, experts warn that changes to the panel could threaten public confidence in government health agencies.
$180 million: Chinese tech giant Tencent recently struck a deal with SM Entertainment, one of the leading K-pop production houses, to purchase almost a 10% stake for $180 million. The latest move signals a potential musical thaw in China-South Korea relations: Beijing has imposed an unofficial ban on K-pop ever since Seoul agreed to host US missile defenses in 2016.
2%: Citing the need to reduce reliance on the United States, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carneypledged to raise defense expenditures to 2% of the nation’s GDP by the end of the year. The accelerated spending will bring the country in line with NATO benchmarks five years ahead of Carney’s previous target of 2030.
499: Russia launched 499 drone and missile attacks on Kyiv last night, in one of the largest aerial assaults of the three-year-war. The latest attack coincides with a fresh Russian push into eastern Ukraine, and it follows Kyiv’s own large-scale drone attacks on Russian strategic bombers last week.
3%: Less than 3% of the world’s oceans are effectively protected from destructive activities like industrial fishing and deep-sea mining. But with the UN Oceans conference now underway in France, delegates are on track to ratify the High Seas Treaty, a landmark agreement that will allow countries to establish protected areas in biodiverse international waters.
View of what state media KCNA reported was a test-firing of the weapons system of the new "Choe Hyon-class" warship, in this picture released on April 30, 2025, by the Korean Central News Agency.
Welcome to the new global arms race: faster, smarter, more dangerous and more expensive than ever. In 2024, world military spending surged toa record $2.7 trillion, the steepest annual increase since the Cold War's end, driven largely by European, Asian and Middle Eastern nations.
Who's buying?
Faced with threats from Russia, Europe has ramped up defense budgets, with Poland's spending growing by 31% to $38 billion and Sweden’s by 34% to $12 billion in its first year of NATO membership. Germany increased military expenditure by 28% to $88.5 billion, making it the fourth-largest spender globally and rearming the nation that precipitated the two major world wars of the last century.
In the Middle East, Israel's military spending soared by 65% per cent to $46.5 billion, the largest annual rise since 1967, amid its war with Hamas in Gaza and conflict with Hezbollah in South Lebanon. In Asia, China spent 7% more on its military in 2024, adding an estimated $314 billion, raising fears of an imminent operation against Taiwan, which boosted its military spending by 1.8% in 2024 to $16.5 billion. Fellow Asia-Pacific power Japan saw its military budget rise by 21% to $55.3 billion, its largest annual increase since 1952.
Who's selling?
Traditional arms exporters like the United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany continue to dominate the market. However, emerging players such as India, Turkey, and Israel are increasing their share. Notably,Israel's defense exports reached a record $14.8 billion in 2024, with Europe accounting for 54% of sales, up from 35% the previous year.
What’s on the wish list?
Today’s arms race is not just about quantity, but technology. Nations are investing heavily in next-generation weapons, including drones, hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and space-based systems.
In the US, President Donald Trump’s desire for a “Golden Dome” missile defence system akin to Israel’s “Iron Dome” would add $175 billion to Washington’s arms budget over the next three years. It would also require the cooperation of neighboring Canada, at a price of $61 billion, or 51st statehood – which Prime Minister Mark Carney has made clear is not on the table.
Russia’s recent announcement that it is equipping Belarus withantiballistic Oreshnik missiles capable of striking all of Europe has upped the need for missile defence systems on the continent. The United States, China, France, and Germany have also invested in electromagnetic railguns that shoot projectiles without gunpowder; last year, Japan became the first country to test one at sea.
Strategic implications
All this warmongering could deal a death blow to arms control agreements. The New START treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire in February 2026, withlittle hope for renewal. It could also see new theatres of war emerge: in the Asia Pacific around Taiwan, in Europe in countries bordering Ukraine, and in cyberspace, through the use of disinformation and propaganda campaigns. And all that military spending will put a dent in national budgets, possibly requiring cuts to social benefits, increased debt, or fewer government services - which won’t make voters happy, and could contribute to political instability.
What We’re Watching: Trump and Musk feud, Russia retaliates, Bangladesh sets elections
Will Trump and Musk kiss and make up?
The extraordinary public feud between US President Donald Trump and his former government efficiency czar Elon Musk continues. Despite late night reports that the two alphas were seeking detente, Trump was reportedly unwilling to engage with Musk again on Friday morning. The potential break-up risks fracturing the MAGA coalition and could affect Trump’s efforts to pass his “big beautiful” spending agenda (which Musk has called “an abomination.”) And if things get really ugly, could Musk actually start a third party?
Russia responds “very strongly”
Russia haspounded Ukraine with airstrikes over the past 24 hours, in response to Kyiv’s recent drone attacks which crippled a third of Russia’s strategic bombers. The ferocious exchange comes after Ukraine-Russia talks earlier this month went nowhere: Kyiv wants an unconditional ceasefire, Russia wants only a partial one. Trump, who spoke with Putin this week and warned that Russia would respond “very strongly”, said yesterday the two sides, already at full-scale war since 2022, may “need to fight for a while.”
Bangladesh to hold elections next spring.
Bangladesh, a South Asian country of 173 million people, will hold national elections in April 2026, the country’s de facto prime minister, Muhammad Yunus, announced on Friday. The textile-exporting nation has been without an elected leader since a student uprising last August forced then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee to India. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party had pushed for an election this December, but Yunus said he wanted to ensure a free and fair electoral process before sending voters to the polls.Hard Numbers: Trump issues sweeping travel ban, BoC holds rates steady, US funds “self-deportations,” and more...
US President Donald Trump speaks as he attends a “Summer Soiree” held on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on June 4, 2025.
12: US President Donald Trump has banned visitors to the US from 12 countries: Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Another seven countries will face greater restrictions. The ban, which Trump based on national security grounds, takes effect on Monday.
2.75: The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate steady for the second time in a row, leaving it at 2.75% amid uncertainty about the extent and effect of US tariff increases. The bank said it may still cut rates later this year if the economy continues to struggle.
20: US intelligence believes Ukraine’s expansive drone attack on Russian airfields last weekend struck just 20 planes, destroying 10 – half the numbers claimed by Kyiv. Still, the damage was significant and Russia will respond “very strongly,” according to Trump, who spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday.
$250 million: The US State Department has earmarked $250 million to cover travel expenses for migrants without legal status who chose to “self-deport.” The money has been repurposed from funds previously used to aid refugees.
31: Oilers forward Leon Draisatl scored with 31 seconds left in the first extra period, to give Edmonton a comeback win in game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals against the defending champ Florida Panthers. As many of our readers will be (painfully) aware, a Canadian team hasn’t won the cup since 1993.