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benjamin-netanyahu
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a discussion on the subject of hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem, November 18, 2024.
What We’re Watching: Bibi on the brink, US-China truce, Elon-Trump detente
Will Israel’s government be dissolved?
The warning signs are flashing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Knesset prepares to vote later today on whether to dissolve his government. The crisis was triggered when a pair of ultra-Orthodox parties in Bibi’s coalition signaled last week they would ditch the coalition over plans to end certain military exemptions. For more on what the collapse of Netanyahu’s government could mean, see here.
US and China reach tariff ceasefire
The United States and China reportedly agreed to a trade truce Wednesday, with US President Donald Trump saying Chinese imports will now face a 55% tariff while Beijing keeps a 10% levy on US products. Importantly, China has restarted its exports of high-tech magnets and rare earth minerals, and the White House reaffirmed Chinese students’ access to US colleges. Still, details of any larger deal covering broader issues of market access and technological competition are far from being ironed out.
Musk v Trump: Is it too late now to say sorry?
Elon Musk appears to be tapping out in his highly-public feud with US President Donald Trump, posting on X (early) this morning that he “regrets” the insults he’s hurled at the president.We’ll be watching to see if the detente holds between these two famously volatile figures. With midterms on the horizon, it matters: Musk’s financial firepower is significant, as we saw here.
For more:Ian Bremmersat down with Semafor Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith to discuss the Musk-Trump beef and what it tells us about political power in America today.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir walk inside the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem March 27, 2025.
Netanyahu’s coalition is crumbling
Israel’s ruling coalition is facing its most serious crisis yet. Two of the country’s ultra-Orthodox parties — United Torah Judaism and Shas — announced they are quitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over proposed changes to long-standing rules that exempt ultra-Orthodox students from Israel’s military draft. The split is likely to collapse the coalition. The centrist opposition Yesh Atid party has already filed a motion to dissolve the Knesset, Israel’s legislature. A vote on that, set for June 11, is likely to succeed, triggering a general election by November.
The withdrawal of the two parties came in response to a bill introduced by a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party that would curtail military exemptions. The ultra-Orthodox community has largely been exempted from military service since Israel’s founding, but that arrangement is under growing strain as the Gaza war stretches Israel’s manpower, forcing repeated reserve call-ups that have generated increasing public anger at this exemption.
“This issue — ultra-Orthodox conscription — is part of a divide that’s governed Israel for 70 years. It’s not new, but it’s symbolic of the larger cultural war,” says Middle East Institute Scholar Dr. Ilan Peleg.
But this was just the straw that broke the camel’s back. Netanyahu’s coalition has been becoming increasingly fractured as polarization and government dissatisfaction has risen in the country. The prime minister is personally motivated to remain in charge to preserve his legal immunity amid ongoing corruption trials. To do so, he has relied on two key groups to stay in power: ultra-nationalists who want to escalate the war in Gaza beyond what much of the Israeli public is willing to tolerate, and ultra-Orthodox parties who insist on maintaining exemptions from military service — a stance that has generated resentment among some non-Orthodox Israelis, who bear the brunt of the war effort.
With the ultra-Orthodox unlikely to return without a clear legislative fix — and none is forthcoming — the odds of a government collapse are high.
This upheaval raises big questions.
The first is Iran. “The threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program is one of the few unifying issues among Israelis,” says Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “A successful raid that delays Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear weapon could strengthen Netanyahu’s domestic position.”
But a dramatic move against Iran, without strong US backing — particularly from President Donald Trump, who currently favors diplomacy — would carry major risks.
“Even if it’s possible technically to do it, maybe desired by Israelis,” Peleg explains, “the American veto would be a major factor on the negative side.”
The second is Gaza. Early elections would raise pressure on Netanyahu to secure more hostage releases from Gaza and strike a temporary ceasefire — with growing war fatigue and frustration over hostages likely to weaken Likud at the polls.
If the government collapses and elections are held, the increasingly unpopular Netanyahu could lose his grip on power. He would be challenged by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose newly-registered right-wing party is currently leading in the polls.
Netanyahu, a skilled politician who has held the premiership in several stints since the 1990s, has come back from more than one prediction of his demise. Will this time be different?
Maksad says that while it’s “not impossible that [Netanyahu] could manage to return the premiership… It would be an uphill battle.”
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) speaks during a marathon address from the US Senate floor on Tuesday, April 1, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Booker sets record for longest Senate speech, Israel expands latest Gaza offensive, Netanyahu and Orbán defy the ICC, Oz universities cut off Confucius, Argentina’s poverty plunges
25+: The Democrats may not have the White House or a majority in Congress, but one thing they do have, still, is words. Lots and lots of words. Words for days, even, as Democratic Sen. Cory Booker showed by taking to the podium on Monday with a broadside against Donald Trump that lasted more than 25 hours. The veteran lawmaker from New Jersey, a former football player, had vowed to stay up there as long as he was “physically able.” Before yielding the floor on Tuesday night, Booker broke the record for the longest Senate floor speech, surpassing one set in 1957 by the late Sen. Strom Thurmond, who filibustered against civil rights.
42: The first stage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, brokered in January, officially lasted 42 days. The deal now looks to be far in the rearview mirror, as Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Wednesday that he would expand his army’s latest military offensive in Gaza. The two sides are still negotiating another ceasefire deal via mediators but haven’t yet reached an agreement.
5: Benjamin Netanyahuleaves Wednesday on a five-day visit to Hungary. It’s the Israeli PM’s second trip abroad since the International Criminal Court last year issued an arrest warrant for him over alleged war crimes in Gaza. In February, he visited the US. Hungary is an ICC member, but the country’s proudly “illiberal” PM Viktor Orban says he won’t honor the court’s warrant. In recent years, the right-winger Netanyahu has cultivated controversial ties with populist nationalist parties in Europe, including some with histories of overt antisemitism.
6: In recent years, half a dozen Australian universities have closed the Chinese-funded Confucius Institutes on their campuses. The CIs educate students about Chinese language, history, and culture. The moves come amid broader tensions between Australia and China, and they reflect fears that Beijing has used the institutes to spread pro-Chinese propaganda and cultivate possible intelligence assets.
38: Argentina’s poverty rate plunged from 53% to 38% last year. Analysts credit “anarcho-capitalist” president Javier Milei, who drastically slashed government spending to put the mismanaged economy on a more stable footing. After an initial bout of pain, those measures brought inflation down from nearly 300% to 70%, easing poverty as people’s spending power increased.
Israel Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Itamar Ben Gvir shake hands as the Israeli government approve Netanyahu's proposal to reappoint Itamar Ben-Gvir as minister of National Security, in the Knesset, Israeli parliament in Jerusaelm, March 19, 2025
Israel gets “budget of war” amid new plans for Gaza and West Bank
It also included a series of tax hikes that were heavily criticized by opposition parties. Outside the Knesset, demonstrators protested the government’s failure to secure the release of the remaining 59 Israeli hostages as well asrecent moves by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dismiss the head of Israel’s intelligence agency and its attorney general.
For all the protests, the budget’s passage represents “a significant political win for Netanyahu,” according to Eurasia Group managing director Firas Maksad.
“With greater room to maneuver politically from here on, the big question is if the prime minister will be more flexible on moving towards phase two of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, thereby beginning to bring the conflict with Hamas to close,” Maksad added.
A fund for war? Israel is reportedly preparing amajor ground offensive in Gaza after the end of the recent two-month ceasefire, includingseizing additional territories and potentially occupying the enclave. “If there are not renewed hostage negotiations, then the only alternative left is to resume the fighting,” warned Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council. “And there are serious plans.”
Other plans include creating new settlements on the West Bank. Last week, Israel’s security cabinet greenlit a decision to split off 13 “neighborhoods” of existing West Bank settlements, established decades ago without authorization, from their “mother settlement,” creating independent settlements. The Palestinian Authority condemned the move as well as increased Israeli military operations in the northern West Bank as “an unprecedented escalation in the confiscation of Palestinian lands.”
Tensions in the West Bank have been escalating for months. On Monday, the Oscar-winning Palestinian director of “No Other Land,” Hamdan Ballal, was detained by Israeli forces on accusations of “rock throwing,” which he denied, after being attacked by settlers in the village of Susya. Ballal was released Tuesday and said he was beaten and blindfolded for 24 hours while in custody, and the Israeli military has not responded to the allegation.
Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa talks to attendees during a national dialogue in Damascus, Syria, February 25, 2025.
Israel turns the screws on Syria's new leader
Israel this week conducted a fresh wave of airstrikes on southern Syria, just a day after Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s call for an Israel-controlled “security zone” in the south of the country.
The context: Ever since jihadist militias led by al-Sharaa overthrew the Assad regime in December, Israel has moved aggressively to neutralize any new security threats from its old foe. Right after Assad fell, Israel struck dozens of Syrian military targets and sent IDF troops several miles into Syria to establish a “buffer zone.”
Netanyahu’s new policy escalates even further. It calls for the Israel-enforced demilitarization of the entire south of Syria. Turkey, which has explored security cooperation with Syria’s new regime, has condemned what it says is Israeli “expansionism.”
Adding to the intrigue, Netanyahu says he’s protecting the Druze, a religious minority in southern Syria. Local Druze leaders have so far responded coolly.
All of this puts al-Sharaa in a tough spot. He is trying to build a viable state in a fragmented country that has suffered decades of dictatorship and a dozen years of civil war. If he doesn’t respond to Israel, he risks looking weak. If he does, he risks a fight he is in no position to win. Advantage Israel?U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands after speaking to reporters before their meeting at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem on May 22, 2017.
Is Trump targeting Netanyahu?
President-elect Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week by sharing a video clip on his Truth Social account that shows economist Jeffrey Sachs trashing Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The edited two-minute-long video shows Sachs accusing Netanyahu of manipulating Washington into involvement in Middle East wars the US should have avoided.
The video clip begins with what Sachs describes as dishonest US interventions in Iraq, under George W. Bush, and Syria, under Barack Obama. But the focus quickly turns to the Israeli PM. Netanyahu “is nothing if not obsessive, and he’s still trying to get us to fight Iran this day, this week,” warns Sachs, who also referred to Netanyahu in the clip as a “deep, dark son of a bitch.”
Why did Trump share this video with his nearly 8.5 million Truth Social followers? Is this a warning to Netanyahu not to attack Iran in ways that force a US intervention in a Middle East war that Trump is determined to avoid? His Cabinet picks – particularly Marco Rubio for secretary of state, Mike Waltz as national security advisor, and Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador – are considered adamantly pro-Israel.
The incoming president has criticized and threatened a number of US allies since his election win in November, and we’ll have to keep watching to see whether Trump is formulating a new Middle East strategy.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a ceremony for the 70th cohort of military combat officers, at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
ICC warrants for Bibi, Gallant will test respect for international law
The International Criminal Court on Thursday issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of “crimes against humanity and war crimes” in Gaza — including using “starvation as a method of warfare” and “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”
The court also issued a warrant for Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ armed wing who Israel says was killed in an airstrike. The ICC said it’s not in a position to determine if Deif is dead.
The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant are emblematic of the growing schism between Israel and the international community amid the Gaza war, and perhaps the sharpest rebuke yet of the Jewish state’s prosecution of the conflict. The move came as the death toll in Gaza surpassed 44,000, according to Palestinian officials.
Will Netanyahu be arrested? Not in Israel or the US, neither of which belongs to the ICC or recognizes its authority. Both countries swiftly condemned the court over the warrants.
The ICC also doesn’t have a police force and relies on member states to make arrests — and the court doesn’t try defendants in absentia. But Netanyahu and Gallant could potentially be arrested and tried if they travel to any of the 124 countries that are ICC member states, including the entire EU.
These warrants will pose a test for Israel’s Western allies if Netanyahu ever plans to visit, and raises questions over how they should interact with the Israeli leader more generally.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the ICC arrest warrants are “binding” on all countries in the bloc given they’re party to the Rome Statute — the international treaty that established the court. Canada and several European countries have already signaled they’ll abide by the warrants.
We’ll be watching for signs of how these countries plan to handle relations with Netanyahu moving forward — and whether they’ll choose maintaining close ties with Israel over upholding international law.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a ceremony for the 70th cohort of military combat officers, at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
Will Netanyahu survive the Gaza leak scandal?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in hot water (again). An aide to Netanyahu has been arrested over a leak of classified documents that an Israeli court says may have compromised efforts to release hostages in Gaza and threatened national security.
The court partially lifted a gag order on Sunday that revealed the aide as Eliezer Feldstein, a spokesperson in Netanyahu’s office.
The documents were leaked to foreign media outlets that published articles on them in early September at a key moment in negotiations for a cease-fire deal involving the release of hostages. One report from the UK-based Jewish Chronicle, which has since been retracted, suggested that Hamas was planning to smuggle hostages into Egypt. Another, published by the German tabloid Bild, said Hamas was prolonging talks to foment divisions within Israel.
At the time, Netanyahu was facing mass protests after the deaths of six hostages in Gaza. Critics of Netanyahu say the leaked documents backed up the prime minister’s hardline stance on truce talks and offered him political cover for not reaching an agreement.
Opposition leader Yair Lapidsays Netanyahu is either complicit or incompetent and, therefore, “not qualified to lead.” Hostage families are also up in arms.
This scandal comes after a series of wins for Netanyahu, including the deaths of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, and after his approval numbers appeared to be rebounding. Opponents of Netanyahu say he’s prolonged the war for political reasons, as far-right members of his fragile coalition have threatened to quit the government if a peace deal was reached.
Netanyahu denies involvement in the leak and much is still unknown due to the gag order — including the identities of several other suspects. We’ll be watching how this unravels in the days ahead, and whether it has the potential to threaten Netanyahu’s grip on power.