Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks to the crowd during a commemoration ceremony held to mark the first anniversary of the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi and his entourage in Tehran, Iran, on May 20, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Iran rejects US nuclear offer, Musk-Trump divorce goes public, Mongolian PM resigns
Iranian leader pours cold water on nuclear deal
US President Donald Trump’s hopes of clinching a quick and easy nuclear deal with Iran appear to be dashed, after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the White House proposal – sent on Saturday – as “rude and arrogant.” The rejection comes days after a UN nuclear watchdog reported that Iran’s uranium is approaching weapons-grade levels. Even so, “Iran isn’t rejecting diplomacy and talks are likely to continue,” says Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Gregory Brew.
A Big Beautiful ‘Abomination’
“A disgusting abomination” – that’s how Tesla owner Elon Musk described the House Republicans’ “Big Beautiful Bill” on Tuesday afternoon, as his divorce from Trump grows increasingly public. Following Musk’s comment, some of the very people who passed the House bill are also now expressing buyer’s remorse. It looks like the chainsaw-wielding Musk has instead turned to throwing wrenches…
Mongolian PM steps down
Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene has resigned following protests about alleged corruption. Mongolia is a sprawling, resource-rich former-Soviet satellite surrounded entirely by Russia and China. Unlike anyone else in the neighborhood, it has maintained a functioning multiparty democracy since the early 1990s, but this resignation marks a setback. A successor to Oyun-Erdene will be named within 30 days.President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office on April 7, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt
US-Iran talks to be held this weekend
On Monday, President Donald Trump said that the US has been engaged in “direct” talks with Iran over its nuclear program and said that a meeting with “very high-level” officials is set for this Saturday. That would be a sharp break from previous US-Iran talks, which have occurred mostly through intermediaries.
But Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied the “direct” aspect of these talks,confirming that the US and Iranian negotiators will meet in Oman on Saturday, but that they would remain in separate rooms as Omani diplomats carry messages back and forth.
Whatever the format, Trump made it clear that he expects progress. “If the talks aren’t successful with Iran, I think Iran is going to be in great danger,” he warned. “And I hate to say it, great danger, because they can’t have a nuclear weapon. You know, it’s not a complicated formula. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. That’s all there is.”
While a breakthrough this weekend is unlikely, the talks suggest that both sides see an advantage in finding out whether a deal with the other side is possible.
There are other hopeful signs of a deal. In response to warnings from US officials of looming air attacks by American forces, the leaders of four of the largest Iran-backed militia groups operating in Iraq told Reuters on Monday that they were prepared to surrender their weapons to Iraqi government authorities. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has reportedly met with militia commanders and urged them to disarm, according to Iraqi state officials who requested anonymity.
The militia commanders also said that the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, their prime supplier of weapons and money, had agreed to let local group leaders inside Iraq decide how best to respond to Trump’s threats.
Though these militia moves are more likely a tactical retreat than a true surrender, any move to disarm would give the Trump administration a notable foreign-policy victory without an attack. The so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a group of about 10 heavily-armed Shia militias with a total of 50,000 fighters and access to heavy weapons, including long-range missiles, has attacked both Israeli and US military targets in the past.
A demonstrator wears elaborate face paint during a march for Mahsa (Zhina) Amini and those protesting her death in Iran.
Is the West doing enough to help Iranians?
The actions of Iranian protesters over the past two months – particularly women – have been awe-inspiring. Despite the prospect of incarceration, and worse, they’ve refused to kowtow to the bushy-eyebrowed mullahs calling the shots in the Islamic Republic. Fear of execution looms large, but Iranian women continue to abandon their headscarves and chant in the streets for regime change.
Things are only getting more dangerous after Iran’s parliament recently voted in favor of the death penalty for protesters. The first such sentences were handed down in recent days. Indeed, the stakes could not be higher, and yet hopeful Iranians continue to risk their lives.
As the government crackdown intensifies – there have been 300 deaths and 15,000 arrests to date – is the West doing enough to support the protesters in their bid for freedom?
Defying the despots. Iranians took to the streets in September in the aftermath of the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was arrested and reportedly beaten by Iran’s “morality police” for improperly donning her hijab.
Many young Iranians have died in custody over the past decade, but Amini’s story has galvanized a generation of millennial and Gen-Z women who have no recollection of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought down a corrupt Shah and have zero affinity for the mullahs who rule their lives.
As the human rights situation in Iran deteriorates, what’s the West doing about it?
Suit-clad politicians in Brussels and Washington have imparted all the right platitudes expressing support for Iran’s women-led movement.
More substantially, the US and EU, the UK, and Canada have expanded on Western sanctions in recent weeks – in place for the better part of a decade – aimed at stopping Iran from further developing its nuclear program. The Western alliance has sanctioned a host of officials from the Islamic Republican Guard Corps, a key unit of Iran's armed forces, as well as high-ranking government officials and regime loyalists.
These new measures come on top of long-term sanctions that have sought to cut Tehran off from the global financial system in hopes of strangling Iran’s most lucrative export – oil – and bringing the regime to its knees.
Still, while these established measures remain in place, the Biden administration has so far been unwilling to up the ante by implementing a cohesive strategy for further inflicting pain on the Iranian energy sector. Consider that in the fiscal year leading up to March 2023, Iran is expected to export 1.4 billion barrels per day, compared to around 500,000 bpd or less when former President Donald Trump was in the White House and enforced a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran.
This suggests, analysts say, that the West, long trying to keep the dialogue open with Tehran in hopes of reviving the now-defunct nuclear deal, has overseen a lax enforcement system.
Many observers point to the latest developments in Ukraine as a case in point. Despite Western sanctions intended to stop Iran from developing its military-industrial complex, Iran has succeeded in building one of the world’s biggest drone fleets – and is supplying the Russians with thousands of sophisticated “killer drones” that the Kremlin is using to pummel Ukraine.
What’s more, debris from the battlefield suggests that Iranians have been able to rely on Chinese copies of Western parts to build their drone stockpile, while they’ve also acquired Western-made parts to power their drones. Clearly, Western sanctions haven’t had the intended effect of cutting Iran off and making it squirm. (To be sure, the EU has recently imposed sanctions on Iran drone makers, while the US sanctioned Iranian flight companies for helping transfer drones to Russia. Still, it comes after Iran had already developed one of the best arms games in the business.)
Moreover, that countries including China and the United Arab Emirates have had no qualms about flouting Western sanctions on Iranian energy exports suggests that the perceived cost of buying and selling Iranian oil has waned.
What more could be done? The US could sanction Iran’s drone program and increase the pace of its ad-hoc sanctions regime. What’s more, while hundreds of Russian diplomats have been expelled from Europe and the US, many Iranian dignitaries continue to get the royal treatment in global forums.
Looking ahead. The UN Human Rights Council says it will hold a special session to discuss Iran on Nov. 24. Meanwhile, the world's largest and most influential economies are currently gathering at the G-20 summit to talk about all things geopolitics. Will their response to Iran be united and stern? Don’t hold your breath.
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Why Israel now supports an Iran nuclear deal
Israel fiercely opposed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, but now is not so against it as it was before.
Why?
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says the Israelis have realized that a no-deal scenario doesn't serve the country's interest — and that the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal was a mistake because it brought Iran closer to getting the bomb.
And why does Israel get to have nukes but not Iran?
"Well, international relations is about double standards, right?"
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
The Iran nuclear deal
The Iran nuclear deal was enacted in 2015 to stop Tehran from getting the bomb in exchange for economic sanctions relief. At the time it was a big win — especially for the Obama administration.
But not everyone was a fan. Critics say the deal only slowed down the nuclear program, didn’t address Iran's support for Hezbollah, and hardly reset US-Iran ties.
Then, as he promised on the campaign trail, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
Since taking office, Biden has made it a priority to revive the agreement. Some progress has been made.
But now, the war in Ukraine is a problem because Russia is at the negotiating table. If the Russians walk away, the deal will be hard to implement politically. Moscow may also use its support for the deal as leverage to lift Western sanctions. And then there's the global oil crisis, which gives the Iranians more bargaining power.
What's more, a new US administration could still withdraw (again) in 2025.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
The pros and cons of a nuclear program for Iran
Has the war in Ukraine changed Iran's calculus on getting nuclear weapons?
Not necessarily, says Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group. Like the Ukrainians now, the Iranians know Iraq and Libya basically gave up their weapons programs and then got invaded — a sharp contrast to North Korea when Donald Trump was in the White House.
Tehran, he tells Ian Bremmer, is fully aware that once they go nuclear, the strategic balance of power becomes a game based on how many nukes you have, and that they may suffer a strike before they acquire the capability anyway.
Still, Vaez explains that Ukraine has changed things somewhat because the Russians have moved the goalposts by making their support for the deal contingent on lifting Western sanctions against Russia, which the Iranians resent because they too need sanctions removed.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
The US can’t let Iran get any closer to nuclear weapons, says Iran expert Ali Vaez
Even if the US rejoins the Iran nuclear deal, many Republicans are fiercely opposed to it — and could withdraw again in 2025 if they win the White House in two years.
Why do it at all then? Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group, has some thoughts.
For one thing, it'll buy us nine years before the Iranians can enrich enough uranium for a nuke. For another, now we know the real effect of pulling out: it boosted Iran's nuclear program.
What's more, if the US withdraws for a second time, Vaez says the terms of the deal will leave Tehran where it is today: "uncomfortably close to nuclear weapons."
How close? Well, he says, in a matter of four weeks the Iranians could enrich enough uranium to be 99% of the way to weapons-grade.
A single weapon is not an arsenal, but Vaez thinks that's still "too much of a risk and ... too uncomfortable for Israel and the US."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
Models of oil barrels and a pump jack are displayed in front of a rising stock graph
What We're Watching: Soaring oil prices, inching towards an Iran nuclear deal
Rising energy crisis? Barely a week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy prices are going up faster than most experts predicted. Brent oil rose above $119 a barrel on Thursday, while Dutch natural gas futures — the benchmark for Europe — were trading at the equivalent of $360 per crude barrel. What’s more, prices are already soaring before Western sanctions have targeted Russian oil and gas, which could provoke Moscow into cutting off supplies to Europe. Why is this happening? Demand for Russian commodities has plummeted over fears that the next wave of sanctions will include energy. This week, the US and 30 other countries announced the release of 60 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves to stop the bleeding, but that won’t be enough if the Russians turn off the tap. Will the Europeans continue supporting tough sanctions when their citizens start complaining about the cost of electricity bills and gas at the pump?
Is the Iran nuke deal being revived? The 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran could reportedly be revived within the coming days or weeks. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency plans to visit Tehran on Saturday to try to iron out a couple points of contention and shore up support for the accord, which would give Iran sanctions relief — likely including lifting bans on its oil exports — in exchange for Tehran hitting the brakes on its nuclear program. But critics say that the Biden administration’s push to return to the terms of the 2015 deal is misguided because Iran’s nuclear program is now significantly more advanced. Since the US abandoned the deal in 2018, Tehran has been upping its uranium enrichment game, a claim supported by the Vienna-based IAEA, which said Thursday that Iran is close to having enough material to make an atomic bomb. Meanwhile, a former US State Department official tweeted Wednesday that the US was preparing to lift sanctions on the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as well as on the supreme leader's office, though those claims have not been corroborated.