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Graphic Truth: Another US ceasefire proposal for Gaza
It’s been two weeks since Israel launched its latest offensive in Gaza, one that is set to expand further. Attacks on the enclave in this period have regularly killed dozens, per Hamas-run health ministries, with reports over the weekend of deaths at an aid site. Some of Israel’s allies are even turning on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The offensive does appear to have weakened Hamas – the Israeli military said it killedMuhammad Sinwar, the militant group’s Gaza leader, during airstrikes in May. US special envoy Steve Witkoff wants to seize on this opening, and has sent a ceasefire offer to Hamas – one that includes an exchange of hostages for prisoners. This Graphic Truth lays out the key terms of the deal. Hamas has countered: it said it’s willing to release the hostages, but wants a permanent ceasefire.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini brief the media at the European Council in Brussels, Belgium, on December 11, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Pressure on Israel, Jitters in Bolivia, Podcasts for Democrats
Israel under fresh pressure
The UK and EU threatened Tuesday to revise trade ties with Israel unless PM Benjamin Netanyahu stops the new offensive in the Gaza Strip and allows sufficient humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave. This comes after the UK, Canada, and France threatened Israel on Monday with “concrete measures,” like sanctions. Netanyahu and his far right coalition allies say they are intent on destroying Hamas, though critics warn Israel is becoming a “pariah.”
The Morales of the story: Bolivian heavyweight to defy election exclusion
Bolivia’s socialist powerbroker Evo Morales, who governed from 2006 until he was ousted in protests in 2019, is officially ineligible to run in this August’s presidential election because of term limits. Yet he has pledged to mobilize his supporters to defy this rule, setting up a potentially destabilizing contest as his once-formidable leftwing MAS movement splinters into rival factions.
Democratic donors try a pivot to podcast
Faced with the vast array of conservative or MAGA-friendly online influencers who helped Donald Trump to win the 2024 election, Democrats and their donors are now trying to cultivate a creator economy of their own ahead of the 2026 midterms. There’s lots of money and pitches, but can you really create a viable ecosystem of influencers overnight? Authenticity, the heartbeat of any political campaign, is hard to create in a lab. You’re either a born killer or you’re not.
Tourists in the center of Madrid, Spain, after the announcement of the Ministry of Consumer Affairs to block almost 66,000 illegal ads, on May 19, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Spain clamps down on Airbnb, Cat busted smuggling drugs in Costa Rica, and More
66,000: Amid growing concerns from residents, the Spanish government is calling for the removal of 66,000 Airbnb listings for violating tourist accommodation regulations. Protests have been erupting across the country – the second most popular tourist destination in the world, behind France – as frustration mounts over over-tourism and a housing crisis.
50: Of the 240 Venezuelans deported from the United States to El Salvador, at least 50 entered the United States legally and violated no immigration laws, according to an analysis from the center-right CATO Institute. This study follows an earlier report that 75% of the 240 men had no criminal record.
100: Israel allowed the United Nations to bring 100 aid trucks into Gaza on Tuesday, caving to mounting international pressure to provide relief for residents affected by an eleven-week blockade. UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher called for more aid, estimating that 14,000 babies could die in Gaza in the next 48 hours without immediate access to more aid.
$5 million: The Trump administration is discussing whether to offer $5 million to the family of Ashli Babbitt, an Air Force veteran who was killed as she stormed the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as part of a settlement over a wrongful-death lawsuit. President Donald Trump granted clemency to all those involved in the Jan. 6 riot, but this move would go a step further.
235.65: Officers at Pococi Penitentiary in Costa Rica apprehended a paws-itively furry culprit caught up in a prison drug-smuggling scheme: a cat carrying 235.65 grams of marijuana and 67.76g of heroin. The drugs have since been confiscated, and the animal was put into the care of the National Animal Health Service.President Joe Biden at an event with Kamala Harris on lowering drug costs for America.
HARD NUMBERS: Biden diagnosed with cancer, Russian drones hammer Ukraine, Israeli forces enter Gaza, Pope Leo gets political, UK and EU are friends again, Austria wins Eurovision
9: Former US President Joe Biden, 82, has been diagnosed with prostate cancer that has metastasized to the bone. Biden’s cancer has a “Gleason score” of 9 out of 10, which means it is highly aggressive, but since it requires hormones to grow, may respond to treatment that deprives the tumors of hormones. Both US President Donald Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris expressed their sorrow on social media and wished the former president a successful recovery as he and his family review treatment options.
273: Russia launched 273 drones in the Kyiv region of Ukraine Sunday, killing one woman and causing widespread damage in its biggest drone attack of the war. Ukraine accused Russia of also intending to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile, but Moscow did not comment. The escalation comes ahead of US President Donald Trump’s calls with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine on Monday, to broker a ceasefire deal.
140: Palestinian health officials say Israeli air strikes killed over 140 people in Gaza Sunday, raising accusations of ethnic cleansing by the UN. Israel subsequently began a ground offensive in the territory after peace talks stalled in Qatar, with officials saying that the strikes were part of its plans to “achieve all of the war goals in Gaza” and establish “operational control” of parts of the territory.
200,000: An estimated 200,000 well-wishers, including a slew of world leaders, packed St. Peter’s Square in Rome for the first sermon of Pope Leo XIV - and the pontiff didn’t leave out the politics. Leo stated that his role is to serve without “yielding to the temptation to be an autocrat,” remarked on Ukraine being “martyred,” and deplored the people of Gaza being “reduced to starvation.”
12: The United Kingdom and the European Union have decided that there are plenty of fish in the sea for them to share: London granted EU boats access to UK waters for the next 12 years in return for fewer checks on British food exports to the 27-country bloc. The deal also includes a significant security pact. It’s a significant moment for UK-EU relations, just nine years after their infamous divorce.
160 million: Austria took top prize in the 69th Eurovision song contest Saturday, with classically trained countertenor JJ wowing an estimated 160 million viewers with his soaring pop-opera ballad, Wasted Love. Second place went to Yuval Raphael of Israel with a moving trilingual performance of New Day Will Rise, while Tommy Cash of Estonia came in third with his frothy fast-dancing confection, Espresso Macchiato.A demonstrator looks up at her sign during a rally demanding the Supreme Court uphold the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which grants citizenship to all individuals born within the country’s borders, in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 15, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: SCOTUS hears birthright case, Tensions flare between Guyana and Venezuela, More strikes in Gaza, The cat’s out of the gene pool
14: The Supreme Court is reviewing arguments on the Trump administration’s plan to end birthright citizenship. A lower court blocked it, citing the 14th Amendment, which guarantees citizenship for “all persons born or naturalized in the United States.” The White House isn’t challenging the lower courts’ reasoning, but is arguing that the district judges lacked authority to issue nationwide injunctions in the first place.
3: Guyanese soldiers have come under attack three times in 24 hours in Essequibo, an oil-rich border region that both Guyana and neighboring Venezuela claim. Guyana has administered the region for decades, but Venezuela says it intends to have Essequibo included in its gubernatorial elections scheduled for May 25 as a means to fully incorporate the region.
114: At least 114 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes across Gaza on Thursday, including 56 in Khan Younis. Israel said it was targeting Hamas fighters. The strikes come as Hamas and Israel hold indirect talks on a potential ceasefire and hostage deal.
10.6 million: What do Garfield, Crookshanks, and Puss and Boots have in common? They’re orange and, until now, no one has known why. A group of scientists — with the help of 10.6 million yen ($72,800) in crowdfunding from cat lovers — found that ginger cats lack part of their genetic code, causing cells to produce lighter colors in their fur, eyes, and skin (especially in males). Orange you glad I didn’t say meow?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Jabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip, on May 14, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Israeli air strike in Gaza kills 50, Houthis try and fail to hit Israel, Al Qaeda-linked group kills Burkina Faso soldiers, Uruguayan liberal hero dies, Brazil’s secret cash cow
50: An Israeli air strike in Northern Gaza killed at least 50 on Tuesday night, including 22 children and 15 women, according to an Indonesian hospital operating in the area. Israel has ramped up its latest Gaza offensive, with its security cabinet reportedly approving a plan to “capture” the enclave.
3: The Iran-backed Houthi rebels fired three missiles at Israel during a 24-hour period spanning Tuesday and Wednesday, two of which were intercepted. Israel seems ready to respond, ordering a trio of Yemeni ports to be evacuated.
60: An Al Qaeda affiliate killed 60 Burkina Faso soldiers in the country’s northern Loroum province, amid mounting tensions in a place that has been roiled by an Islamist insurgency for nearly a decade. It’s not clear when exactly the attacks took place.
89: Uruguay’s former president José Mujica, renowned for his humble lifestyle, died at the age of 89. He had cancer of the esophagus. Once the leader of a violent guerilla group in the 1960s, he served 15 years in prison before eventually becoming president in 2010. He earned cult status among liberals worldwide when he became the first leader to legalize weed.
80%: Zebus, an Indian cow breed renowned for its humped back and turkey wattle, now comprise 80% of Brazil’s total cattle herd. They are more resistant to heat and parasites than their European cousins, allowing them to proliferate, which in turn has helped Brazil become the largest net exporter of food.
Palestinians inspect damage at the site of an Israeli strike on a house amid the Israel-Hamas conflict at the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on December 13, 2024.
A Gaza ceasefire within reach
This time, the hopes appear well-founded. Hamas, and its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, have taken a beating. A number of leaders in both organizations have been killed, and with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, Iran has lost the ability to resupply them with new weapons.
Haggling continues over the deal’s details, but it appears a ceasefire would unfold in stages. First, Hamas would release dozens of the Israeli civilians and female soldiers it still holds hostage, and Israel would remove troops from Gaza’s cities, its coastal highway, and the corridor at Gaza’s border with Egypt. In a second phase, Hamas would release its remaining hostages, and more Israeli troops would be withdrawn from Gaza. Finally, the details of a longer term ceasefire itself would then be set.
More than 100 Israeli hostages have already been freed, either through Israeli-Hamas bargaining or Israeli rescue operations. In total, Israeli officials believe another 62 hostages are still alive and that Hamas or associated groups hold at least 30 more bodies of hostages who died. TheUnited Nations reports that more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed since the Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the war.
Israel's next move
And secondly, the US Treasury Department has announced additional sanctions against tankers that have shut off their transponders and are helping the Iranians to illegally export significant amounts of sanction-breaking oil. Prices can go up on the back of that. An unusual thing for the Americans to do a few weeks before the election, but shows just how concerned they are about potential escalation in the region. So let me give you some context here. First point. On the one hand, the Americans have sent THAAD systems to Israel before. So it's not like there aren't any American soldiers on the ground operating in Israel. This is not such a game-changer. In fact, such a decision was made not only years ago, but also after October 7th. But it is notable that it comes a year later on the back of potential significant escalation, both in the Northern front that we're already seeing and with Iran that we might be.
Second point is that the oil prices continue to be a little bit under 80 bucks. OPEC has a lot of spare capacity they could put on the market. China continues to have pretty poor numbers in terms of demand. So this isn't likely to have the American move to hit more Iranian oil, isn't likely to have a lot of impact in terms of oil prices. But if the Americans could have stopped what is right now 1.5 million barrels of Iranian export if they could have taken that down and the Iranians are using that money to pay for the Axis of Resistance that's targeting not only Israel but targeting ships in the Middle East, targeting American and UK military assets, why did Biden wait? Why is it only being announced now? And why is it only being announced now in a way that seems to be a gimme for the Israeli Prime Minister and his government in return for not engaging in significant retaliatory escalation against the Iranians?
This is a US policy that continues to look very weak, that continues to be out of step with most of its allies at this point. You see even French President Macron saying that he doesn't want to provide any more military support for Israel. Of course, it's easy for him to say that. He doesn't provide much to begin with. If it was a significant export, I'm sure Macron wouldn't be saying that. But nonetheless, the Americans are on really one very isolated side at this point compared to the rest of the international community, whether you like the United States or you don't. And their ability to influence the Israeli government appears to be virtually zero. And that has been shown with the recent attacks by the Israeli Defense Forces against UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. And we've seen that on the back of those attacks that the United States, France, Spain, Italy, which is a strong right-wing government, but also has a thousand peacekeepers on the ground in Lebanon, all strongly condemning the Israelis for making these attacks.
But not prepared to actually do anything in response and certainly not making the Israelis feel like they need to stop. Now the Israeli perspective is these peacekeepers have not been capable of upholding Security Council resolution that required that Hezbollah pull back from the border area, a buffer zone, that they've been launching military strikes against Israel. And that also Hezbollah fighters are essentially using the presence of the peacekeepers as shields. And that they're operating not on the peacekeeper's bases but in proximity, which makes it harder for the Israelis to go after them. That certainly doesn't justify firing directly on the peacekeepers base, which has happened, and which now the IDF says a mistake. In return, the Israeli Prime Minister has called on the UN Secretary-General to withdraw the peacekeepers. I find it implausible that the Israeli Prime Minister doesn't realize that the Secretary-General has actually no authority over the peacekeepers.
They're sent there on the basis of the Security Council. So in other words, if the Israeli Prime Minister wants to make a demand, he's making it of the permanent members of the Security Council like the United States and China and France, the UK and Russia. He apparently doesn't want to make that statement. But again, the point here is the comparative impunity, and the major headlines, of course, are in the last 24 hours, around four Israeli soldiers that have been targeted and killed, as well as a large number of injuries on Israeli military bases by Hezbollah drones. Hezbollah is much more capable than Hamas has been, and there will be more significant Israeli casualties as this war continues. But most of the casualties, of course, even though it's not most of the headlines, will be among the Lebanese, among the Hezbollah fighters, and among the Lebanon civilian population, of which we've seen about 2,000 killed so far.
And that is because the military dominance in the region, again, both offense and defense and intelligence and surveillance, is overwhelmingly in the hands of Israel. So if there's going to be significant escalation in the war going forward, that escalation will be decided overwhelmingly by the Israeli government. And so that's what is particularly interesting to watch over the coming weeks. I am not expecting very much against Iran, frankly. The fact that the Israelis have already waited for a couple of weeks takes a lot of the urgency out of that. The fact that the Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said, "It will be the time of our choosing and what we do, they'll know that it was us, but they won't know how we did it," implies something that is a much more targeted attack than lots and lots of bombs raining down against, you know, sort of a nuclear facility or against oil production.
It would not surprise me if it was a high-level assassination, for example, against the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC. Especially because we already saw that when the Trump administration assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian response was virtually nothing. So there's precedent for that, and the Iranians have very little at this point that they can do that wouldn't hurt them a hell of a lot more than they can hurt Israel or Israel's allies. So that's where we are right now. A war that continues to escalate with a lot of suffering on the back of it. An incredibly ineffective US policy in the region, and everybody else pretty much sitting on the sidelines.