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Trump-Musk rift over Trump's "big, beautiful bill"
On Ian Bremmer’s World In 60 Seconds: Ian breaks down the rift between President Trump and Elon Musk over Trump’s “big beautiful bill”, Mexico’s democratic backslide, and South Korea's new leadership.
Ian's takeaways:
On Trump-Musk feud: “I think Elon is mad at a bunch of stuff right now. And as we know, he's not exactly stable in how he puts his views out as he has them.”
On Mexico’s judicial reform: “It’s really bad for democracy… and leads to a lot more corruption.”
On South Korea’s new leadership: “He (Lee Jae-myung) says he wants to govern as a centrist, but I suspect he’s going to govern more to the left.”
A view of the US Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., on July 1, 2024.
Hard Numbers: The Supreme Court’s final countdown
With one month left in the US Supreme Court’s term, the justices still have a number of massive decisions to make. Here’s a few left on the docket.
25: In a case that hits on the balance of powers, the justices will decide whether a district court has the authority to issue a nationwide ban on executive orders. The executive order in question is Donald Trump’s ban on birthright citizenship, although the US president faced another 25 nationwide injunctions on his executive orders in the first 100 days of his second term.
18: SCOTUS will decide whether Tennessee's ban of transgender youth-transition therapies – like puberty blockers and hormone therapy – for children under the age of 18 violated the 14th Amendment. What will decide the case? How the judges interpret the Equal Protection Clause of this Amendment.
2: The nine justices will decide if public schools violate parents’ religious rights by teaching gender and sexuality topics without notice or opt-out options. The case, brought by parents objecting to LGBTQ-inclusive books in the curriculum, drew two hours of intense arguments, leaving the outcome uncertain.
70-90: The Court is weighing whether US gun makers can be held liable for cartel crimes in Mexico. Mexico argues these gun manufacturers knowingly supply cartels and are complicit, and says 70–90% of traced guns used in crimes came from or through the US.
Mexican social media influencer, Valeria Marquez, 23, who was brazenly shot to death during a TikTok livestream in the beauty salon where she worked in the city of Zapopan, looks on in this picture obtained from social media.
“Hey Vale” – a live-streamed killing and the scourge of femicide in Latin America
Last Wednesday afternoon, Valeria Márquez, a 23-year-old Mexican cosmetics and lifestyle influencer with more than 200,000 followers on social media, set up a camera and began livestreaming on TikTok from her beauty salon near Guadalajara, Mexico.
Moments later, as she spoke to her followers while holding a stuffed animal, a man entered the salon.
“Hey Vale?” He asks out of frame, using a casual nickname for Márquez as he apparently offers her a gift. He then shoots her to death, picks up the camera, and switches it off.
Several days later, Maria José Estupiñán, a Colombian model and social media star, was also gunned down in the doorway of her home in the border town of Cúcuta by an apparent stalker.
The killings of the two women, both relatively affluent, young, and with large public profiles, have shaken the two countries, throwing fresh attention on the wider problem in Latin America of femicide – the killing of women or girls because of their gender.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has assigned her top security team to investigate the killing of Márquez, which authorities have already classified as a femicide.
According to a study published late last year, roughly 11 women were murdered every day in femicides in the region in 2023. The most dangerous countries were Honduras, where 7.2 out of every 100,000 women died in femicides, and the Dominican Republic, where the rate was nearly 3. In Colombia, local watchdogs recorded nearly 900 femicides last year, a seven-year high.
As elsewhere in the world, the vast majority of these crimes are committed by men who are known to the victims – current, former, or aspiring romantic partners, as well as male family members.
But addressing the problem, experts say, is a complicated mix of changing laws and shaping minds.
Over the past three decades, countries throughout the region have passed at least some legislation to address violence against women, pushed both by United Nations conventions on violence against women, and activist movements like Ni Una Menos (“Not one woman less”), founded in Argentina a decade ago in response to the murder of a pregnant, 14-year-old girl at the hands of her boyfriend.
Some countries have gone further, developing specific frameworks for the documentation and prosecution of femicide. Mexico and Colombia, in fact, have some of the strictest laws on the books, says Beatriz García Nice, a gender-based violence expert based in Ecuador. But laws aren’t enough.
“It’s not that we lack laws,” she says, “it’s that there is impunity and the lack of enforcement.”
One part of that comes from deeply ingrained social norms, she says.
“We have to change cultural traits so that you’re not teaching kids, especially boys, that women are property, or that their only role in society is to belong to a man.”
Corruption also plays a role in a region where graft and nepotism are rampant in judiciary systems. In Mexico, for example, a study from 2023 showed nearly half of people lack confidence in the judiciary, and close to 90% of people said they didn’t report crimes for that reason.
This fuels reluctance to report gender-based crimes as well – more than 85% of women in Mexico, Honduras, and Ecuador say they don’t report episodes of physical or psychological violence. That matters because femicide, García Nice points out, is only the gruesome end of a long road that begins with other kinds of abuse.
The rise of the influencer economy can make things even worse, especially as legal frameworks addressing online harassment of women are still relatively weak in Latin America.
“Online violence bleeds into offline violence,” says Rangita de Silva de Alwis, a University of Pennsylvania law school professor who is on the UN committee that focuses on eradicating violence against women.
“The impunity that we see in the online world has real world consequences.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Kursk-II nuclear power plant under construction, in the Kursk region, Russia, on May 21, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Putin celebrates in Kursk, “Death camp” discovery in Mexico, & DRC seeks US help against China
Putin takes a victory lap
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kursk on Tuesday for the first time since the Kremlin declared that it had ejected Ukrainian fighters from the Russian region. It’s another flex for a leader who signals no interest in halting the war in Ukraine. The next challenge for Moscow: Can its army secure major battlefield gains this summer to further boost its bargaining position?
Activists press Mexico’s government on cartel “death camp”
Pressure is growing on Mexico’s government to take action against drug cartels that have kidnapped, tortured, and killed tens of thousands of people over the last two decades, after relatives of some of the 120,000 disappeared persons learnt this week about a “death camp” in the western state of Colima. Authorities discovered mass graves there 18 months ago, but only just passed on the information to victims’ families. Taking on these gangs is a complex task for President Claudia Sheinbaum, as local authorities lack the manpower and firepower to quell them.
US vs China in the DRC
Felix Tshisekedi, president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has picked a fight with China over its cobalt and wants US help. The sub-Saharan nation banned exports of the metal – an essential input for the battery, defense, and aerospace industries – in February, but China’s top cobalt producer, COMC, is now pushing the DRC to lift the ban. The DRC produces about three-quarters of the world’s cobalt, and is seeking to engage the Trump administration to find new investment partners in a bid to limit Chinese influence in its cobalt trade.
Can Trump and Carney reset US-Canada relations?
But it has reduced cause for panic, in part because Trump stated a commitment of the United States to the basic alliance, to the security umbrella, to defending Canada as necessary, which was something he wasn't saying over the past few months with Justin Trudeau. He clearly likes Carney more than Trudeau, which is not surprising because that bar is pretty much on the floor. And also stopped with the governor speak, which is clearly disrespectful, but did push on the 51st state issue, and how much better it would be for Canada if they were actually a part of the United States, not that he intends to take it over militarily, but rather something he's going to keep talking about.
And Carney didn't interrupt Trump when he was going on and on, talking about that, but then responded with his best line of the conversation, which is, "I've spent the last couple months going around talking to the owners of Canada, meaning the voters, the citizens of Canada, and it's never, never, never going to happen." Trump says, "Never say never," and they kind of agree to disagree on something they shouldn't be talking about to begin with. But at the end of the day, not much there. The bigger problem, of course, is that there is an incredibly important trade relationship between the US and Canada. And no, it is not true that the US doesn't do much business with Canada. In fact, Canada actually buys more from the United States than any other individual country in the world does. And if you go talk to the governors, the senators, the representatives of all of the northern states that border Canada, they can tell you just how integrated those supply chains are, how essential the Canadian economy is for them.
And some of those are blue states, some of those are red states, and it don't really matter, they all care a lot about their relationship with Canada. So, it is important. But because Trump is individually taking the right to tariff from Congress, where it legally sits, and using legally contestable national emergency clauses to enforce tariffs, impose tariffs on other countries, including those that are governed by pre-existing trade relationships, like Canada, which has a robust USMCA, US-Mexico-Canada agreement, that Trump himself helped drive, negotiate, and trumpeted as a huge win at the time, but now he is singularly undermining it. And what that means is that we are very unlikely to get to a new agreed USMCA in the coming year, despite the utility of renegotiating it with the sunset clause, and instead... look, I don't think anyone's going to run away from it, I don't think it's going to break, instead, it means that every year we're going to kick it down the road and renegotiate so that you can keep it going.
And that means that the Canadians don't feel like they have a functional multilateral trade arrangement with the US and Mexico, that also means, because the US president can change it at any moment he wishes, and also that an enormous amount of time is going to be spent in those negotiations, not just now, but every year, creating more uncertainty for those that need to want to rely on the long-term stability of that trade relationship. And here is the rub, which is that the US-Canada relationship will stay important, it'll stay robust, but it will become more transactional, where it had been built on trust and shared values, and that means the Canadians will work really hard to hedge and de-risk their relations from their most important trading partner.
About 75% of Canadian trade is with the United States right now, they rely much more on the US than the Americans rely on Canada, Trump is absolutely right about that, but they now see that as a vulnerability. And for the last 40 years, the Canadians, really since '88, '89, the Canadians have focused singularly on increasing their interdependence with the United States. They built out all of this infrastructure from the provinces, not east-west, but rather north-south. If you look at the way that rail transit, and energy infrastructure, and supply chains work in Canada, it's as if these provinces were independent republics set up to do business just with the United States, not focused on what would make sense for an independent sovereign Canada over the long term, if that relationship suddenly were ruptured.
Well, that needs to change, and that's something that you're going to see the Canadians work very strongly on over the coming years. Easier for Carney to do, because his relationships internationally are much stronger than previous Canadian prime ministers, certainly generationally, if you think about the fact that he was Central Bank governor in the UK, and that one of his best international relationships is actually with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and others and others, I think you're going to see a very strong effort to work with the UK, to work with the Commonwealth, to work with the EU, and to help shift those trade flows over time to hedge further away from the US.
And the costs of that will be significant, the impact of the trade rupture in the near term will be a major recession in Canada imminently, and a mild recession in the United States imminently as well, but over the long term, my view is no one benefits from that.
So, that's the main takeaway, a little less theatric maybe than the internet, apologies for that, but it is the way I see it, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
A pair of wolf cubs explore their surroundings in Dallas, Texas, on April 7, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump explores drones over Mexico, House Dems go big, Dominican roof collapse leads to tragedy, Electricity generation crosses green threshold, South African citrus goes bad, Dire wolves are back (sort of)
5: Five years ago, President Donald Trump suggested firing missiles into Mexico as a way to curtail drug cartels, according to former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s memoir. While that never happened, the commander-in-chief is exploring something similar, but this time with drones. Plans are still in their early stages, but American forces have already started reconnaissance flights – with Mexico’s approval – in a bid to acquire more information about the cartels.
35: Last week’s special elections in Florida appear to have House Democrats all giddy, as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of the House Democratic Caucus, released a list of 35 Republican-held seats that it plans to target in next year’s midterms. Some are realistic, others less so: Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) is on the list, despite winning reelection last year by 26 points.
98: At least 98 people have died and scores more were injured in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, after the roof of the Jet Set nightclub collapsed early Tuesday. The authorities reported that rescuers made 134 trips to the hospital, sometimes carrying two to three patients at a time due to the overwhelming number of casualties. One video captured the extent of the damage.
40: Environmental think-tank Ember found that electricity generated from low-carbon sources – solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear – exceeded 40% in 2024, the first time it has crossed this threshold since the 1940s. The fast rise of solar underscored this milestone, but the report also had some sobering news for environmentalists: Carbon dioxide emissions reached an all-time high last year.
35,000: The Trump administration’s expansive new tariffs are a sour fruit to swallow for South Africa’s citrus industry, as the new 31% duty on imports from the Rainbow Nation could spoil some 35,000 jobs, according to the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa. Pretoria exports $100 million worth of citrus to the United States each year.
>10,000: Over 10,000 years since dire wolves went extinct, Biotech firm Colossal claims to have effectively brought them back from the dead. Using preserved DNA, Colossal scientists rewrote the code of a common gray wolf and used domestic dogs to birth three dire-like wolves, called Romulus, Remus, and Khaleesi. The species became a feature of public consciousness after they starred in the hit show “Game of Thrones.” Experts are skeptical about how closely these three pups resemble the dire wolf; one paleogeneticist suggested that these lupine creatures are grey wolves with dire wolf-like characteristics.
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 2, 2025.
Trump slaps tariffs on the world
During a speech in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday, Donald Trump announced a 10% across-the-board tariff on US imports, with higher rates for countries that have a larger trade surplus with the United States – to the tune of 20% for the EU, 54% for China, and 46% for Vietnam, to name a few of the hardest-hit. Trump also confirmed that he’s imposing 25% levies on foreign-made cars and parts.
There are some exceptions: Neither Canada nor Mexico were singled out for “reciprocal” tariffs. While they are subject to automobile and steel tariffs, products compliant with the USMCA agreement – around 38% of imports from Canada and 50% from Mexico – will not be subject to any tariffs.
How are countries responding? The 10% tariffs will take effect on April 5, followed by the extra “reciprocal” duties on April 9. This timeline gives countries a chance to retaliate, and many have vowed to do so by imposing equally high tariffs on US imports. The EU said on Thursday that it would impose countermeasures if negotiations with the White House don’t go anywhere. China echoed the Europeans’ approach, threatening countermeasures if the US doesn’t pull back. Other countries were more muted, though: India said it would be “measured” in response, while Australia won’t counter at all.
The Trump administration is betting that some may choose to negotiate, either by lowering their own tariffs or increasing investments in the US. “My advice to every country right now is, do not retaliate,” warned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox News. “If you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t, this is the high watermark.”
Financial markets react. S&P and NASDAQ futures declined by 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, New York copper futures are experiencing the sharpest drop, plunging as much as 4%, while crude oil fell by over 3%.
Promises made, promises kept. From the blue-collar workers scattered throughout the Rose Garden crowd to the Teamsters union shoutout, the goal of the tariffs was clear: Trump wants to reshore manufacturing to the US. He also hopes that the revenue collected from tariffs will pay for the tax cuts making their way through Congress.
Trump is making a political gamble that the short-term pain from tariffs — price inflation and possibly even a recession — will be offset by economic benefits from tax cuts, deregulation, and expanded manufacturing. He’s betting that these benefits will arrive before the 2026 midterm elections. If he’s wrong, his party is likely to pay a heavy price at the ballot box.People gather for the "Elbows up" rally on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on March 9, 2025.
China, Mexico, and Canada take different paths to tackle tariffs
On March 4, 2025, US President Donald Trumpincreased tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%. The same day, the US imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. Two days later, Trump announced that goods and services covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, aka USMCA, would be exempt until April 2, when reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect against all countries around the globe. Canadian energy and potash remain tariffed at 10%, while its steel and aluminum are tariffed at 25%.
Faced with these realities, Mexico, China, and Canada are pursuing very different strategies. What’s working, what’s not, and what’s next?
Mexico has opted for a “respectful” approach prioritizing dialogue over reprisals. In January, President Claudia Sheinbaum launched “Plan Mexico” to address her country’s $105 billion trade imbalance with China by boosting domestic production and attracting investments. She also aggressively tackled drug cartels and migration, Trump’s two pet peeves at the border. In a phone call on March 5, Trump told her, “You’re tough,” and announced his intent to grant Mexico its USMCA reprieve until April 2.
China has taken decisive retaliatory actions – but also sees an opportunity. Vowing to fight “to the bitter end,” Beijing imposed additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 15% on specific American imports, notably soybeans, pork, beef, chicken, and cotton, which will hurt Trump’s Midwestern voters. But China will also leverage America’s April 2 tariffs to boost trade with other nations, potentially offsetting losses in the US market.
Canada has been the most aggressive, going “elbows up” – a hockey term signaling defiance. Ottawa imposed counter-tariffs that could imperil 3.7 million jobs in red US states, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to impose a surcharge on electricity exports (which he later withdrew). This week, newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Europe to shore up trade with the UK and France, rather than engaging first with Washington.
Why the tough stance? For Canada, this isn’t just about tariffs. Trump’s continuous talk of making Canada the 51st US state has enraged Canadians, who are canceling US holidays and boycotting American products. It has also upended the next Canadian election, which Carney is expected to call within days, and which he could now win on the back of anti-Trump sentiment.