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Taiwan's strategy for countering a Chinese invasion, with Bonny Lin of CSIS



On this week’s GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a look at one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world: the Taiwan Strait. China has been conducting drills around Taiwan for years, but since the current pro-independence president, William Lai, took office in 2024, Beijing has been staging near-daily military exercises near the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before.

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How China would seize Taiwan without firing a shot

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a key pillar of his nationalist agenda. He’s ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027, and the PLA has been conducting near-daily military drills around the island–larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down how China could seize Taiwan without firing a single shot.

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Leading Republican senators during their weekly briefing in the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 20, 2025.

Douglas Christian/ZUMA Press Wire

What We’re Watching: “Big Beautiful” bill heads for the Senate, UK gives up Chagos Islands, Taiwan pivots to drones

House passes Trump’s tax agenda, but senators will now have their say

By a margin of just one vote, the US House early on Thursday passed a budget bill containing President Donald Trump’s tax agenda, which centers on making his 2017 tax cuts permanent. Some last-minute changes to the bill helped to get it over the line: House Republicans increased the SALT-cap to $40,000 and accelerated the introduction of work requirements for Medicaid. But can the GOP get the bill through the US Senate? Lawmakers in the upper chamber are already plotting changes to the legislation...

You can Chagos your own way: UK hands islands back to Mauritius, leases back base

More than two centuries after taking the Chagos Islands from France, the United Kingdom relinquished the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius, but will continue to lease a US-UK military base there, on the island of Diego Garcia, for another 99 years. The UK says the deal, which creates a 24-mile buffer zone around the base, is meant to ensure its long-term security amid growing Chinese aggression in the area. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the deal.

Taiwan adds new drone units as part of shifting military strategy

Ever wary of a potential Chinese invasion, Taiwan announced that it will introduce its first-ever drone units this year. The move is part of Taipei’s evolving strategy of effectively deterring Beijing rather than preparing for a direct fight. “Overall, the cross-strait military balance still tilts toward China’s favor, since China spends a lot more on defense,” says Eurasia Group regional expert Ava Shen. “So it’s more pragmatic for Taiwan to be a ‘porcupine,’ so to speak.”

An aerial photo shows the Kumamoto factory of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC), the largest semiconductor contract manufacturer, in Kikuyo Town, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, on March 14, 2025.

The Yomiuri Shimbun

Trump prepares to slap tariffs on semiconductors and pharma

The topsy-turvy-tariff tale continued to swing this week, as the Trump administration advanced a plan on Monday that could result in new levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The news came days after US President Donald Trump announced that smartphones would be exempt from the 145% duty that he had slapped on China.

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A giant screen in Beijing shows news footage about the People's Liberation Army (PLA) joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan on April 1, 2025.

REUTERS/Florence Lo

China conducts massive military drills around Taiwan.

China on Tuesday conducted one of the largest military drills to date in the waters and skies around Taiwan.

Beijing said the operation — in which dozens of aircraft and warships breached Taiwan’s de facto boundaries — was a dry run for “seizing comprehensive control” of the self-governing island.

The backstory: The island has ruled itself for decades, but Beijing views it as part of China, and President Xi Jinping has promised to reintegrate it — by force if need be. The US nominally recognizes China’s claims but, in practice, provides substantial security support to the island.

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U.S. President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019.

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Trump's China policy risks allies

What is President Donald Trump’s strategy on China? On the one hand, he slapped additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and is considering$1 million fees on Chinese-built vessels entering US ports. On the other, Washington and Beijing are reportedly discussing a cozy-sounding“birthday summit” between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to talk trade in June. It’s enough to give investors whiplash – and make neighboring nations nervous.

And they may have good reason. Last week, Trump issued an“advance warning” to long-time allies Japan and South Korea that he is not prepared to defend them against Chinese aggression unless they make economic concessions. He complained that the American security treaty with Japanis nonreciprocal and claimed that “South Korea’s average tariff is four times higher” than that of the US.

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Taiwan's flag with a semiconductor.

Paige Fusco

Has US opened the door to Taiwanese independence?

The US State Department last week scrubbed a statement from its website that said it doesn’t support Taiwan’s independence, sparking fury in China, which called on the United States to reinstate the message. Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lungappreciated the removal.

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Marco Rubio speaks after he is sworn in as Secretary of State by U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, on Jan. 21, 2025.

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Tough talk on Taiwan

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clashed with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in their first phone call on Friday over the independence of Taiwan, according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce. During the conversation, Wang reaffirmed China’s position that the island nation is part of China and reportedly told Rubio “I hope you will act accordingly,” a Chinese phrase usually employed by a superior warning a student or employee to behave and act responsibly. Rubio has previously called Beijing the top US threat and was twice sanctioned by China in 2020.

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