Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Viktor Orbán watching his party leave him behind.
Viktor Orbán is in trouble. Europe’s populist right isn’t.
For the past fifteen years, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has coasted from one election victory to another. Since returning to power in 2010, the self-proclaimed defender of “illiberal democracy” has transformed his country into an “electoral autocracy” – reshaping institutions, rewriting election laws, muzzling independent media, and stacking the courts – where elections are technically free but heavily tilted in his favor, the media landscape is dominated by government allies, and the ruling party – Fidesz – uses the machinery of the state to reward supporters and punish dissent.
All the while, Orbán has proudly cast himself as Europe’s chief populist troublemaker – a pro-Russian crusader against liberalism, immigration, and Brussels bureaucrats, Donald Trump’s man across the Atlantic, and a guy who relishes nothing more than jamming up the European Union’s gears.
His nationalist-populist model inspired imitators and admirers across the West. Where many right-wing populists have flamed out, Orbán has endured, winning elections (four in a row, to be precise) and accumulating more power along the way.
But now, Orbán’s veneer of invincibility is cracking. Suddenly, the world’s most durable populist and Trump’s best friend in Europe looks more vulnerable than ever.
Cracks in the crown
At home, the Hungarian prime minister is facing a newly energized political opposition led by a former protégé-turned-rival named Peter Magyar, who’s managed to do what no other challenger has: unite Hungary’s fragmented anti-Orbán forces. Recent polls show Magyar's center-right Tisza Party holding a commanding double-digit lead over Orbán’s Fidesz among committed voters. Whether or not it’ll hold until the elections in early 2026, that’s no small advantage in a country where the ruling party has rewritten the electoral rules in its favor.
Magyar’s appeal lies in his hybrid message: anti-corruption and pro-transparency, but also nationalist and socially conservative enough to peel away disillusioned Fidesz voters. His rise has upended Orbán’s usual playbook, which relied on a splintered opposition and a monopoly on patriotic rhetoric.
Now, for the first time in years, Orbán is worried, and he’s throwing every goodie he can think of at voters – tax breaks for mothers, higher allowances for families, VAT refunds for retirees, price caps on groceries – in a bid to shore up support and stem Magyar’s rise.
But while these giveaways may buy him some political breathing room, they are also blowing a hole in Hungary’s budget just as the economy is faltering. Growth has been stalled since the end of 2022, the budget deficit is ballooning at 4.9% of GDP, and Orbán’s long-running feud with Brussels means billions in EU recovery funds are likely to remain frozen this year.
Then there’s the Trump factor. Orbán likes to boast about his closeness with the US president. He was the first European leader to endorse Trump in 2016 and again in 2024. But that friendship is becoming less useful.
Unless the EU manages to negotiate a trade deal with Washington, Trump’s punitive new tariffs would hit Hungary’s growth engine especially hard, affecting demand from Europe (particularly Germany) and products ranging from lithium-ion batteries (which make up almost 20% of the country's US exports) to electronic, manufactured goods, and even high-quality wines. Orbán has downplayed the damage, insisting Trump’s tariffs are no big deal – and even floating the fantasy that he could leverage his closeness with Trump to strike his own bilateral deal … despite the tiny issue that EU countries have no capacity to bypass the bloc’s common trade policy.
The White House has also made it clear it’s not inclined to give its pal a pass, especially given the growing suspicion with which defense and trade hawks within the administration view Orbán’s pro-China orientation. In fact, Washington is pushing Budapest to ramp up defense spending to 5% of GDP, buy more weapons and LNG from the US, and distance itself from Beijing at a time when economic conditions are making Hungary more financially dependent on China.
And so, Viktor Orbán is boxed in: squeezed by a surging domestic challenger, trapped by an overextended fiscal policy, cut off from EU funds, and now caught in the undertow of his ally’s protectionist turn in Washington.
Don’t call it a comeback
You might think this spells good news for Europe. Facing his most difficult year since first coming to power, the bloc’s preeminent internal antagonist will have a more limited ability to hijack the EU agenda or undermine European unity on Russia sanctions and Ukraine support in concert with Trump. Sure, if you’re laying odds, it’s still Orbán’s election to lose … but Hungary’s at least in play now. It’s welcome news for Brussels.
Some have gone further, though, pointing to recent centrist electoral wins against right-wing populists with explicitly Trumpian politics in Canada and Australia as evidence of a broader anti-Trump effect being in full swing. If Trump’s disruptive return to the spotlight is causing voters to “rally around the flag” of stability, then perhaps Orbán’s troubles are a sign that Europe is finally sobering up from its populist binge – that the chaos and corruption of his and Trump’s style has worn thin, and European voters are turning back toward sanity and moderation.
But that reading overlooks the fact that the anti-Trump bump isn't holding in Europe. If anything, the tide of right-wing populism on the continent is accelerating.
Take Romania. George Simion, an ultranationalist firebrand with a MAGA streak, is now the favorite to beat Bucharest’s pro-Western centrist mayor, Nicușor Dan, in the May 18 presidential runoff election following the collapse of the country’s pro-EU governing coalition yesterday. Simion outperformed expectations in the first-round vote last Sunday after openly embracing Trump-style politics, railing against the EU, and even welcoming American CPAC chair Matt Schlapp to the campaign trail. He is campaigning alongside Calin Georgescu, another far-right candidate whose first-round presidential election win last November was annulled by Romania’s top court due to likely Russian interference. (A massive online influence campaign tied to the Kremlin seems to have helped Simion, too.)
Across the English Channel, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party delivered a political gut-punch to the mainstream last Friday, flipping a historically safe Labor parliamentary seat in a by-election and racking up wins in local council elections. The Labor-Tory duopoly that’s dominated British politics for over a century suddenly looks wobbly – and Farage, a leading Brexit advocate and perennial Trump ally, is at the center of the storm.
Even in places where centrists are supposed to be on solid ground, the far right is gaining. In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice party is leaning into its Trump ties to boost its presidential hopeful, Karol Nawrocki. Recent polling shows Nawrocki closing in on centrist opponent Rafał Trzaskowski ahead of elections on May 18. He flew to Washington last week to meet with Trump-affiliated figures, hoping to ride the same anti-establishment wave to victory.
Meanwhile, in Germany, center-right leader Friedrich Merz squeaked into the chancellorship on a second vote after an embarrassing initial flop yesterday. With the hard-right, MAGA-endorsed Alternative für Deutschland continuing to rise, the conservative chancellor once viewed as the establishment’s answer to the populist surge now leads a wounded and weakened “grand coalition” that feels anything but grand.
All of which is to say: Orbán may be stumbling, but his current woes are less a sign of waning populism or an anti-Trump backlash across Europe than a story of one populist’s bad bets coming due. We could be entering a world where Budapest becomes less of a thorn in Brussels’ side than before. But if European centrists think that’ll be the end of their troubles, they’re in for a rude awakening. Far-right European populism is not going anywhere.
The June 2024 LGBTQ Budapest Pride parade in Hungary.
Hard Numbers: Hungary moves to cancel Pride, China seeks to increase consumption, ‘Coalition of the Willing’ takes shape for Ukraine, HIV treatments run low without US aid, Tourists get cheeky at the Great Wall
200,000: Hungary’s ruling Fidesz Party has intensified its crackdown on LGBTQ+ rights by proposing a bill to ban the Budapest Pride March, just as the event approaches its 30th anniversary. The bill, which is likely to pass given the ruling party’s two-thirds majority in parliament, will criminalize those who violate Hungary’s “child protection” legislation that prohibits the depiction or promotion of homosexuality to minors. Event organizers have condemned the proposed fine of 200,000 Hungarian forints ($546) as a blatant assault on freedom of speech and assembly, as Viktor Orban’s Hungary continues its departure from the core values agreed upon by all members of the European Union.
5: China on Monday unveiled a new plan to revitalize its economy struggling to cope with deflation, unemployment, low household income, a property market downturn, and an ongoing trade war with the United States. The government announced steps to “vigorously boost consumption” by increasing the minimum wage and strengthening support for education and healthcare, with hopes to hit the ambitious growth target of “around 5%” for the year laid out by Premier Li Qiang. But the new guidelines lack concrete steps to stimulate domestic demand and are unlikely to upend the economy’s persistent structural issues.
30: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s spokesman told reporters on Monday that “more than 30 countries” are ready to send troops to enforce a peace deal in Ukraine. Although he didn’t name names, the UK, France, Australia, Denmark, and Sweden previously signaled their willingness to contribute forces. This “coalition of the willing” doesn’t include the United States, but Starmer and other leaders suggest an American security guarantee is still key to a successful peacekeeping mission.
8: The World Health Organization warned that eight countries are facing the exhaustion of life-saving HIV treatments after the withdrawal of US foreign aid. Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria, and Ukraine are all in danger of running out of supplies in the coming months. At a press conference, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that “disruptions of HIV programs could undo 20 years of progress,” potentially leading to 10 million additional cases of HIV and 3 million deaths.
2: A Japanese man and woman were detained for two weeks and then deported for cheeky behavior at one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations. According to the Japanese embassy, the incident stemmed from a prank in which the woman photographed the man exposing his backside at the Great Wall. Reports say exposing the lower half of the body in a public place violates Beijing’s strict decency laws.
FILE PHOTO: The X account of Elon Musk in seen blocked on a mobile screen in this illustration after Brazil's telecommunications regulator suspended access to Elon Musk's X social network in the country to comply with an order from a judge who has been locked in a months-long feud with the billionaire investor, Sao Paulo, Brazil taken August 31, 2024.
Hard Numbers: X marks the spot in Brazil again, China stocks plummet on stimulus worries, Cameroon insists on presidential signs of life, Hungary embraces the olive
5: X was officially reinstated in Brazil, ending a five week ban of the social media platform, which had failed to comply with court orders to remove accounts that were spreading disinformation. X owner Elon Musk had initially defied the orders and refused to pay related fines, styling himself as a defender of free speech. In the end, Musk and X caved as the ban had caused Brazil’s 40 million X users to start using other sites instead.
7: Mainland China’s benchmark stock index plummeted 7% on Tuesday, in the largest single day drop since February 2020, a time when COVID was first spreading rapidly in the country. Analysts suggested the drop, which snapped a 10-day streak of gains, reflected fading optimism that the Chinese government’s current stimulus policies will be enough to perk up a sluggish economy.
31: He is not dead. Repeat. Not dead. That’s the official word from the Cameroonian government about 91-year old president, Paul Biya, who has not been seen in public in 32 days. Biya, who has held power since 1982, was last spotted leaving a China-Africa summit in Beijing on Sept. 8. Since then, he has missed a number of high profile events, including the entire UN General Assembly in New York.
12.35: Hungary is known for the delicacy of its goulash, the harmonies of Franz Liszt, and the architectural beauties of Budapest. But olive oil? Too chilly right? Not any more. Hungarian farmers are increasingly planting olive trees as climate change shifts the temperate zones of Europe northward and inflicts more frequent droughts on traditional Mediterranean olive habitats like Spain. A mere tenth of a liter of the stuff from Hungary now fetches $12.35 in neighboring Slovenia.Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), President of the European Commission, stands in the plenary chamber of the European Parliament and speaks while Vikor Orban (Fidesz), Prime Minister of Hungary, can be seen in the background.
Von der Leyen lays into Orbán over Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyenhad strong words on Wednesday for Hungary’s strongman, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, about his close relationship with Russia. After listing a fiery litany of grievances over Hungary’s democratic backsliding and undermining of EU support for Ukraine, she addressed Orbán directly. “There are still some who blame this war not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom, so I want to ask them: Would they ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion in 1956?”
The powerful rhetoric aimed at painful memories of Soviet tanks crushing freedom fighters in Budapest’s burning streets. Orbán, who had just delivered a relatively meek address about his plans for Hungary’s six-month EU presidency, denied von der Leyen’s accusation and denounced her for using the EU executive as a “political weapon.” Some left-wing MEPs sang the anti-fascist anthem “Bella Ciao,” prompting the parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, to remind them “this is not Eurovision.”
Why did the gloves come off? Von der Leyen and her team of 26 commissioners are going before Parliament for confirmation hearings between Nov. 4 and 12. Parliament has taken von der Leyen to task in recent weeks for playing softball with Hungary and is preparing to sue the commission over its decision to unlock billions in frozen funds for Hungary last year. Taking Orbán to task might just be what she needs to smooth things over before the hearings.
We’re watching how her message plays, and whether Orbán might change his tune toward Russia — but we’re not holding our breath.
Asylum seekers wait outside the foreign office in Brussels, Belgium.
Crackdowns against asylum-seekers gain momentum in Europe and the Americas
On both sides of the Atlantic, a range of countries adopted new measures to clamp down on asylum-seekers this week, amid rising concern about the political impacts of immigration.
Panama began US-funded deportation flights as part of an agreement with Washington to stem the flow of hundreds of thousands of people who transit the country annually en route to the US border. Immigration is the number-two top issue for US voters right now.
Brazil announced it will crack down on layovers who request asylum, after finding that many of them simply use refuge in Brazil as a jumping-off point for northward journeys to the US or Canada.
Hanging over all of this: Some 40% of Venezuelans say they may leave the country if Nicolas Maduro remains in power. Their exodus would exacerbate what is already the world’s largest external refugee crisis.
Across the pond, the UK, reeling from recent anti-immigrant violence, pledged a raft of new measures to stop asylum-seekers from coming, staying, or working in the country. Immigration is now the top issue for UK voters — the first time since the European immigration crisis of 2016, which helped fuel Brexit.
And Hungarian PM Viktor Orban took a page from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s book, promising one-way tickets to Brussels for undocumented migrants who arrive in Hungary. The threat comes after the EU fined Budapest for a strict border policy that is out of step with common EU rules.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell attend the informal meeting of European heads of state or government, in Granada, Spain October 6, 2023.
Hungary’s rift with the EU: Losing host privileges amid Ukraine controversy
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced on Monday that Hungary, which holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, has lost the right to host the next meeting of foreign and defense ministers over its stance on the war in Ukraine.
The controversy: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and accused the EU of having a "pro-war policy,” spurring an uproar in Brussels.
Hungary is also upset about Ukraine’s decision last month to adopt sanctions blocking the transit of oil to Central Europe by Lukoil, sparking fears of supply shortages in Budapest. Hungary relies on Moscow for 70% of its oil imports — and on Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil firm, for half that amount.
Budapest responded to Borrell by announcing that it would not refund EU members any of the6.5 billion euros they expected for transferring arms to Ukraine unless Kyiv allows oil shipments from Lukoil to resume to Central Europe.
Why it matters: Since Russia's invasion, member states that gave weapons to Ukraine have been able to ask for compensation for transferring munitions, giving Hungary monetary leverage to get the oil it wants. Hungary and Slovakia asked the European Commission on Monday to mediate with Ukraine, and the issue would go to court unless the EU executive body acts within three days.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit | GZERO World
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit
Is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán undermining Europe and Western unity following this year’s critical NATO summit? Just days after Hungary’s nationalist leader met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Orbán left the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC to visit former president Donald Trump, a well-known critic of the alliance, at his Mar-A-Lago estate.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to ask how NATO members deal with a renegade ally like Hungary and the challenges posed by Orbán’s coziness with authoritarian rulers. Orbán’s rogue trips are a sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, on full display at the summit, but Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO.
“Orbán is freelancing on behalf of Hungary, and that’s not a new thing,” Sikorski says, “He’s been denying Ukraine transit of defense goods, he’s also been vetoing the release of European money for Ukraine.”
Hungary also has a complicated history when it comes to its international borders, and Sikorski worries about any leader who is willing to redraw a border using force, rather than diplomacy. He says any negotiated settlement in Ukraine should be negotiated by the Ukrainians, and warns that thinking a partitioned Ukraine is inevitable is similar to the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s strategy of appeasing Adolf Hitler in the lead-up to WWII.
“We can win this one,” Sikorski insists, “The Russians have advantage in tanks, but the Ukrainians have advantage in drones.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 13, 2019.
Donald and Viktor reunite at Mar-a-Lago
Former President Donald Trump is hostingViktor Orbán at his Florida resort on Thursday, less than a week after the Hungarian prime minister made controversial visits to Moscow and Beijing to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Orbán was in the US this week for the NATO summit in Washington. Though his country is a member of the alliance, Orbán — an anti-immigrant politician who’s extremely popular with the US right wing — is frequently at odds with the West. His amiable demeanor toward the Kremlin, opposition to providing aid to Ukraine, and antidemocratic tendencies have made him an outsider in NATO and the EU.
Trump, a well-known NATO skeptic, has a lot in common with Orbán: He’s nationalistic, isn’t a fan of sending assistance to Kyiv, and has been criticized for palling around with authoritarians like Putin. And Orbán has notably endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Their Mar-a-Lago rendezvous came after NATO leaders spent several days discussing how to defend Ukraine and democracy — and as President Joe Biden desperately tries to salvage his presidential campaign amid calls for him to step aside. The meeting is indicative of what a Trump victory in November might do to boost the global right.
We’ll be watching to see what details emerge from the meeting, and whether it offers more insights on Trump’s plans for US policy on Ukraine if he wins reelection.
Piers Cazalet, director of defense and security cooperation at NATO, downplayed the significance of the Trump-Orbán meeting in comments to GZERO Media on Thursday at an event on the sidelines of the summit in Washington. There are "32 allied leaders" in the US for the summit and “it’s normal” for them to have a “broad range” of meetings “across the US political spectrum,” Cazalet said, adding, “That’s what democracy is about.”
But Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski talked with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the summit for GZERO World and noted how Orbán’s rogue trips are in sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, which was on full display all week. Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO. Watch the interview here.