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Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi enter a hall for a family photo before a plenary session of the BRICS 2024 Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.
What happened to that Pakistan-India war?
It’s been 18 days since India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire which ended the clashes that had killed dozens on either side of the de facto border in Kashmir. But while the guns are silent, the two arch rivals are still locked in a war of words, with each dispatching officials abroad to shape the narrative.
What’s happened since the ceasefire? The physical fighting – which erupted after a terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan – has mostly paused. There were reports of violence in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, but neither government was fazed – they each stood by the ceasefire.
Even so, India-Pakistan relations have dropped to a new nadir, punctuated by New Delhi’s refusal to reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty. The pact outlines how each country can use reserves from the Indus river – without it, Pakistan is at risk of losing access, in the long run, to virtually its only water source. Signed in 1960, the agreement has survived several rounds of conflicts between these warring neighbors – including ones worse than this latest flare up – yet there are no signs that it will be patched back together this time.
“Pakistan will not be given the water which is rightfully India’s,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said last week, dampening Pakistan’s hopes of maintaining unfiltered access to a river basin that waters 90% of its crops.
So why the foreign missions? Islamabad is highlighting the importance of its own security, adding that it wants to ensure long-term peace and renew the water treaty. It seeks to pile the blame on New Delhi.
Modi’s crew rebukes these claims, and reiterates its belief that the Pakistani government has boosted terrorist groups in the area – the Indian prime minister said on Tuesday that this terrorism has been a part of Pakistan’s strategy since the country’s inception.
Who are India and Pakistan making their cases to? India is flooding the zone (shoutout, Stephen Miller), sending parliamentary delegations to 33 countries, including a raft of European heavyweights like Germany and Russia. Pakistan is being a little more selective: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Turkey – a close ally – on Sunday, while his deputy was in China last week.
Pakistan’s Trump card. Given his disparaging comments about Pakistan during his first term, US President Donald Trump’s return to office wasn’t expected to be a boon for Islamabad. Yet he has changed his tune, striking a more diplomatic tone between the two South Asian nuclear powers when the US has previously sided more with India over China-backed Pakistan.
It also just so happens a Trump family-backed business inked a crypto deal with Pakistan. Maybe that was just a coincidence. Either way, India isn’t pleased – which may explain its decision to barnstorm across Europe in search of non-US support.
Could the fighting recommence? It’s not outside the realm of possibility, if the rhetoric is any indicator. Modi wasn’t exactly conciliatory during an address on Monday, when he told Pakistanis to “eat bread peacefully, or else my bullet is there.” Pakistan hardly seems to be backing down, either: army leader Asim Munir, an influential figure who emphasizes sectarian differences, just had his term extended from three to five years, in a move that suggests further skirmishes could ensue.
So why the big messaging offensive? Does someone just want the air miles? It’s not clear if the diplomatic press is meant to engage global powers in mediation, or if it’s to line up backers in anticipation of another bout of flighting. Either way, neither side seems keen for all-out war nor a long-lasting peace – it looks instead like they want the Goldilocks scenario between the two.
What is Trump after in his latest Gulf states tour?
On Ian Bremmer’s World in 60 Seconds: Ian dives into the Brazil-China relationship, India and Pakistan ceasefire, and Trump’s Gulf States tour.
Ian Bremmer's takeaways:
- On Brazil-China ties: “As the Chinese de-risk away from the United States, that is a significant benefit to Brazil.”
- On India-Pakistan tensions,: “The ceasefire will hold—for now—but the region is more dangerous than it was a few weeks ago.”
- On Trump’s Middle East visit: “He (Trump) wants this to be the most successful foreign trip he’s had as president.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then-US President Donald Trumpshake hands before a meeting at Hyderabad House in Delhi, India, on Feb. 25, 2020.
India hopes Trump will lean its way
Last month, the Trudeau government expelled Indian diplomats after revealing allegations of assassination plots that Canadian officials linked to the highest levels of the Indian government. India denies the allegations and complains bitterly about a lack of security cooperation in dealing with what it sees as threats from Canadian Sikhs who are seeking an independent homeland in India.
On Wednesday, Canadian police confirmed that last month they arrested a man India calls a terrorist on gun charges.
The hostility between Canadian Sikhs and Hindus turned violent in the suburban Toronto community of Brampton earlier this month, leading to an angry denunciation from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India is now hoping Modi’s friend Trump will put Trudeau in his place and resolve the impasse in India’s favor.
But there is an active US prosecution of an Indian intelligence official over a plot to kill Sikh activists in both Canada and the United States. Trump is unlikely to turn a blind eye to that, says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security.
“Anyone who is looking for a foothold to do foreign interference that involves violence on citizens of a country on that country’s soil should be deterred strongly by the United States, particularly under Trump,” she says. “He is strong on national security, and he is not going to tolerate murder-for-hire plots on American soil.”
On the other hand, Trump tends to be motivated by transactional concerns, and India has a lot of leverage in the global chess match between China and the United States.
Canadians manage to give Modi a headache for a change
For years, Justin Trudeau’s government failed to manage foreign interference in Canadian politics, with officials struggling to explain how they failed to see or act on intelligence reports. It got so bad that frustrated Canadian spies started leaking damaging tidbits, forcing the prime minister to call a public inquiry.
Canada has one of the world’s highest proportions of foreign-born citizens, which leads to lively grassroots diaspora politics, but it has failed to set up adequate protections against outside influence. It is only now setting up a foreign agent registry, for example, and the gaps appear to have been taken advantage of by foreign powers, particularly China and India.
Trudeau has been accused of turning a blind eye to Chinese interference and being too close to separatist Canadian Sikhs, while his Conservative opponents are accused of being too close to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Trudeau and his officials have been on the defensive for years, struggling to explain their inadequate measures while trying to rectify them. But on Monday, his team showed a sign of progress as it took a series of carefully orchestrated steps designed to push back at Modi.
First, Canada announced it had expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma. In New Delhi, after being summoned by India’s Ministry of External Affairs, Canadian Deputy High Commissioner Stewart Wheelertold Indian journalists that Canada had provided “credible, irrefutable evidence of ties between agents of the government of India and the murder of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil.”
Next, senior Royal Canadian Mounted Police officers said they had “evidence pertaining to agents of the government of India’s involvement in serious criminal activity in Canada,” including “well over a dozen credible and imminent threats to life.”
Then, a steely-eyed Trudeau held a news conference outlining the allegations and complaining that India had failed to cooperate with Canadian police and public safety officials. “We will never tolerate the involvement of a foreign government threatening and killing Canadian citizens on Canadian soil,” Trudeau said.
Finally, officials worked the phones, giving off-the-record details to national security reporters in Ottawa and Washington, adding lurid details to the broad picture already laid out by the police and politicians.
Speaking off the record, Canadian officials told journalists that Indian diplomats have been forcing Indian Canadians to spy on one another, using money, visas, and threats for leverage, then sending the information back to India, where a senior official “authorized the intelligence-gathering missions and attacks” on people Modi wanted to be targeted. An unnamed Canadian official told the Washington Post that the senior official in India was Amit Shah, Modi’s right-hand man.
India denounced the “preposterous imputations” and blamed “vote bank politics,” Indian shorthand for Trudeau’s reliance on Sikh Canadian voters. India has often accused Canada of being soft on Sikh separatists, alleging that it harbors terrorists, blaming the Canadians for ignoring Indian warnings that might have prevented the 1985 Air India bombing that killed 329 people.
On their face, the Canadian allegations seem too outlandish to be true. Officials allege that the attacks in Canada were carried out by thugs controlled by famous gangster Lawrence Bishnoi, who is directing assassins on behalf of his masters in the Modi government even while he sits in a Punjab prison cell. The targets include supporters of an independent Khalistan and other people who have gotten on the wrong side of Modi.
India has been demanding evidence of criminality since September 2023, when Trudeau accused Modi of being behind the murder of Canadian Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was gunned down by a hit squad outside a temple in British Columbia that June. Back then, India scoffed and falsely accused Trudeau of being coked up, acting as though Canada was making up lies.
Going to see Uncle Sam
But last November, an indictment was unsealed in New York that revealed Indian national Nikhil Gupta, acting on behalf of Modi’s government, had allegedly tried to hire a hitman to kill Nijjar’s lawyer, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. India’s bumbling 007s made two big mistakes. Pannum is an American citizen, so the Americans could hardly let that slide. And the hitman Gupta tried to hire was actually an undercover Drug Enforcement Agency officer.
Gupta is now in a US prison, and officials in Canada and the police must now have a thick dossier linking India to other assassination attempts, including that of Nijjar.
Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi and a lecturer at Yale University, says Modi can’t afford to be seen to have angered Uncle Sam.
“There will hardly be any damaging political consequences for Mr. Modi unless the United States decides to pursue its case very very strongly and embarrass India,” says Singh.
“Then it would make a material difference to how Mr. Modi is perceived.”
Trudeau showed his cards just as Indian officials were arriving in Washington this week to help the Americans with their inquiries in the Gupta case, maximizing the impact and embarrassing Modi on the world stage.
One of the most surprising things about the whole affair is that India seemingly did not dial down its activities after Trudeau called them out last year: Canadians allege that a recent attack against a popular singer was linked to Indian intelligence.
What does this mean for Modi?
So far, it’s a murky, inconclusive mess. The Canadians, of course, have proved nothing, and Trudeau’s back is to the wall as he’s facing growing pressure at home to step down as Liberal Party leader. In testimony at the inquiry on Wednesday, he went after his Conservative opponents, linking them to foreign interference, which lends credence to Indian allegations that he is just trying to save his own skin.
But allies have not expressed skepticism about the evidence the Canadians have shared. The US State Department seems unimpressed by India’s failure to cooperate with Canadian authorities, as do the UK and Australia.
Experts think this is a headache for Modi, but it is unlikely to blow up the significant strategic and trade relations between India and its Western friends.
“The US is likely to deliver a clear message to India about interfering in the internal affairs of allied democracies, especially Washington’s trusted Five Eyes partners,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group.
“But it’s also going to seek to contain the fallout from Delhi’s dispute with Ottawa with an eye to the bigger strategic prize: alignment with India as an essential partner to counter China.”
Behind the scenes, Canada’s allies can be expected to twist arms to try to get the Indians to call off their hit squads. If they don’t, they can expect police and intelligence agencies to keep a close eye on their diplomats, even while military and economic ties grow stronger.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi emplanes for two-nation state visit to Poland and Ukraine, in New Delhi on Wednesday.
India’s Modi makes first-ever visit to Kyiv
India’s balancing act. New Delhi has long-standing economic and military ties to Moscow and has called for diplomacy but refused to condemn the invasion. India continues to buy Russian oil at a discount.
But India is also an important ally of the United States, owing to their shared concerns about China. Modi’s visit to Kyiv is meant in part to ease concerns in Washington while also showing Russia that he has his own prerogatives. Putin will not love the fact that Modi is in Kyiv while Ukraine still occupies Russian territory and is swarming Moscow with drones.
Could India make progress towards peace? It’s a long shot. The US, and especially China, are better equipped to offer the necessary economic and security guarantees. Still, India will play an important supporting role in any settlement. Modi’s trip is at least partly about exploring what that might be.The resident doctors hold placards while chanting slogans during a protest against the brutal rape and murder of a postgraduate trainee doctor from Kolkata's RG Kar Hospital. The doctors' strike continues in the national capital, making a week since the indefinite protest began over the rape and murder of a medical student in Kolkata, causing disruptions to services and affecting patients.
India’s doctors continue strike over Kolkata killing
Indian junior doctors extended their strike on Sunday, prompting thousands more to march in solidarity followingthe horrific rape and murder of a 31-year-old postgraduate medical student in Kolkata. The tragedy has captured national and international attention, with protesters demanding the government do more to tackle the longstanding crisis of rape and sexual abuse of women and girls.
The victim’s bloodied body was discovered on Aug. 9 at the state-run G. Kar Medical College hospital in Kolkata, in a seminar hall where she was resting after a 36-hour shift. One hospital worker has been detained, but the victim’s parents suspect their daughter was gang-raped.
The crime has ignited protests across India, where an average ofnearly 90 rapes a day were reported in 2022. Women’s rights activists say women remain unsafe despite tougher laws enacted after an infamous gang-rape case in a Delhi bus in 2012. The Indian Medical Association has called for enhanced security protocols for hospital staff.
At recent independence day commemorations,Prime Minister Narendra Modi said “Crimes against women should be probed swiftly, and stringent punishment should be given to those who commit demonic acts.” Modi and Indian authorities have been criticized, however, for ignoring a spate of recent gang rapes in Manipur until video evidence of the crimes emerged.
We’ll see whether this latest incident pushes Modi’s government to act more swiftly – and where the investigation goes from here.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) extends his hand for a handshake with his Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau in New Delhi, India, February 23, 2018.
Are Indian agents still at it?
Canadian authorities have warned businessman Hardeep Malik that his life may be in danger, and they are investigating whether India is seeking to kill political enemies in Canada, according to a new CBC report. The news poses a fresh challenge to the government of Justin Trudeau and potentially an irritant to US-Indian relations.
The CBC learned that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police issued the formal warning last week to Malik. He is the son of Ripudaman Singh Malik, who was murdered in 2022, years after being acquitted of murder and conspiracy in the 1985 terrorist bombing of Air India Flight 182, which killed 329 people.
Canada’s failure to prevent the bombing of that flight, or to convict those responsible, has put an enduring strain on relations between Canada and India. Malik had appeared to have reconciled with Narendra Modi’s government before his murder, but the RCMP is investigating whether India may have ordered his killing.
Last fall, Trudeau accused India’s government of being behind the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who, like Malik, was an advocate for an independent Sikh state in India. India angrily denied the accusation, but legal documents eventually made it clear that American authorities had reason to believe the Indian government was behind assassination plots in Canada and the United States.
Joe Biden, who sees Modi’s government as a crucial ally in Asia, is thought to have pressured the Indians to stop killing people in Canada and the United States, but it is not clear that India was chastened. At a recent election rally, Modi boasted about extraterritorial murders. “Today, even India’s enemies know: This is Modi, this is the New India. This New India comes into your home to kill you.”
The last thing Biden needs is another crisis to manage, so it may be up to police in Canada and the United States to put a stop to India’s bumbling assassins.
FILE PHOTO: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (2nd L) and his former Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe (L) bow to national flags as they review an honor guard before their meeting at Abe's official residence in Tokyo, Japan November 11, 2016.
India’s rise makes Japan anxious
India is set to surpass Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy by 2025, earlier than previous forecasts. This marks Japan’s second year of decline in global GDP rankings, after falling from third to fourth place behind Germany in 2023.
According to the International Monetary Fund, India’s nominal GDP will top $4.34 trillion next year, slightly above Japan’s projected $4.31 trillion. The subcontinent’s GDP already overtook that of the United Kingdom in 2022 and grew by 7.8% in 2023.
India's economic ascent has been powered by strong domestic demand, as its population surpassed that of China last year. It experienceddouble-digit growth in its steel, cement, and automobile manufacturing sectors. India now uses its Rupee rather than the dollar for trading with 27 countries, and its 134 billion online transactions account for46% of all global digital payments.
In contrast, Japan's GDP growth lagged at 1.9% in 2023 after decades of stagnation, and the OECD projects an anemic 0.5% increase in 2024. Japan’s woes are exacerbated by its aging population, low productivity, and a stubbornly weak yen.
None of this is good news for the government of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, amid a swirling party finance scandal and abysmal approval ratings. He’ll need to survive a leadership election in the fall for his Liberal Democratic Party, which will be looking for a leader to take them into national elections next year. With headlines like these, Kishida is expected to face defeat.