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Beijing's Tiananmen Square on June 4, 2025, the 36th anniversary of China's Tiananmen Square crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators.

Kyodo via Reuters Connect

HARD NUMBERS: Tiananmen Square anniversary, Prison break in Pakistan, & More

36: Today marks the 36th anniversary of China’s deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protesters occupying Tiananmen Square on June 4th, 1989. The death toll from the day remains disputed, though certain groups have put it in the thousands. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio commemorated the crackdown yesterday, incurring the wrath of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi enter a hall for a family photo before a plenary session of the BRICS 2024 Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.

MAXIM SHIPENKOV/Pool via REUTERS

What happened to that Pakistan-India war?

It’s been 18 days since India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire which ended the clashes that had killed dozens on either side of the de facto border in Kashmir. But while the guns are silent, the two arch rivals are still locked in a war of words, with each dispatching officials abroad to shape the narrative.

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- YouTube

Trump's weekend of geopolitical success

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. A very good weekend for President Donald Trump. Certainly the most success he has had on the global stage since the start of his second term, and I expect that's going to continue with his trip to the Gulf this week. But let's start with the last few days.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer address the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 11, 2025.

Keystone/EDA/Martial Trezzini/Handout via REUTERS

The US hits the reset button with China

Mother’s Day is a time to build bridges, apparently, as the United States and China both agreed to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points each for 90 days following talks in Geneva over the weekend. US tariffs on Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will sink from 125% to 10%.

What’s spurring a settlement? Both countries’ economies havetaken a hit ever since the two countries started a trade war around a month ago.

Will businesses buy the truce? At the height of the US-China trade war last month, Apple said they will shift iPhone production to India. We’ll be watching to see if there’s any plans to reverse course.

Bloodbath or breakthrough? Ukraine demands truce before talks

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are tentatively scheduled for May 15 in Istanbul, where Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky says he’ll be waiting to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But Kyiv insists that an unconditional 30-day ceasefire take effect as of Monday – a condition Moscow has so far rejected.

What’s the White House view? US President Donald Trumpcalled on Ukraine to accept Russia’s offer to meet regardless of a truce, “to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.”

But does Russia really want peace? Iran is reportedly preparing to send Fath-360 missile launchers to Moscow, though Tehran denies this. If true, it casts doubt on Moscow's commitment to ending the conflict.

Speaking of the Middle East, Hamas said it would freeEdan Alexander, the last living American hostage, ahead of Trump’s visit to the region this week. It’s unclear what Hamas is getting in return.

Doubts loom over Kashmir truce

India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire in Kashmir on Saturday after the worst fighting in the disputed region in over two decades. The US claimed to have brokered the deal; however, India downplayed its role while Pakistan lauded Washington’s involvement.

But can it hold? The current truce is fragile: leaders from each side said they were keeping the peace, yet explosions were reported in the area. There may be peace for now, but all parties have their work cut out to maintain it.

A damaged portion of Bilal Mosque is seen after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025.

REUTERS/Akhtar Somroo

India launches strikes on Pakistan

It was never going to end quietly: India early on Wednesday bombed what it said were nine militant sites within Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, reportedly killing at least 26 people in the worst clash between the two countries in decades.

Warning signs. India launched the strikes in retaliation for a terrorist rampage in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir last month. Pakistan says it had nothing to do with that attack.

Pakistani response now inbound. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the Indian airstrikes an “act of war,” and has reportedly authorized the military to respond in kind.

Reaction from abroad. Major countries including the US, Japan, France, and China – which has close ties to Pakistan but borders both countries – called for restraint. Israel notably issued its unequivocal support for India and its right to self defense.

What will happen next? “Pakistan has traditionally responded with a tit for tat response, normally a bombing run on a minor target on Indian soil,” said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Eurasia Group’s South Asia practice head. However, Chaudhuri doesn’t expect the fighting to last long.

“Both sides are nuclear armed, neither has overwhelming military dominance and both lack the economic or political interest in a sustained conflict,” said Chaudhuri. “These skirmishes tend to die out within 24 to 48 hours.”

Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol along a road in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.

Firdous Nazir via Reuters Connect

India and Pakistan inch toward a major clash

Nerves are fraught throughout Pakistan after authorities said Wednesday they have “credible intelligence” that India plans to launch military strikes on its soil by Friday, fueling fears of an outright clash between the two nuclear-armed archrivals. Troops from both sides have been exchanging fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir since a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled section killed 26 civilians last Tuesday. Both China and the US are calling for restraint.

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71 Islamist militants have been killed along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in recent days.

The Graphic Truth: Pakistan kills Afghan militants

Pakistan accused the infiltrators of working for the Pakistani Taliban, a sister terrorist organization to the group that now controls Afghanistan. Islamabad says the Pakistani Taliban is orchestrating a campaign of violence that has rocked the country in recent months with high-profile bombings and shootings

Pakistan’s information minister claimed that India was encouraging the Taliban to strike in a bid to distract Islamabad’s forces from a simultaneous confrontation in Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan partially occupy the disputed mountain region and have traded fire in small skirmishes in recent days after Islamist militants killed 26 civilians last week in the largest terrorist attack to hit the region in years. Indian forces have detained over 1,500 people and destroyed several houses linked to alleged perpetrators. China, a major ally of Pakistan’s, is urging restraint on both sides.

Students shout slogans and burn an effigy to protest the Pahalgam terror attack in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 24, 2025. On April 22, a devastating terrorist attack occurs in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 tourists.

Photo by David Talukdar/NurPhoto

India threatens Pakistan’s water

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has blamed Pakistan for Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, and he’s takenaggressive action against its government. The most striking of these moves is a decision to suspend theIndus Waters Treaty, which sets terms for the sharing of water that flows from the Indus River and its tributaries from India into Pakistan.

Pakistanis depend on water from the Indus for drinking, farming, and hydropower. Some80% of Pakistan’s water comes from these rivers, and agriculture is the only source of income for 70% of its rural population.

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