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Beijing's Tiananmen Square on June 4, 2025, the 36th anniversary of China's Tiananmen Square crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators.
HARD NUMBERS: Tiananmen Square anniversary, Prison break in Pakistan, & More
36: Today marks the 36th anniversary of China’s deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protesters occupying Tiananmen Square on June 4th, 1989. The death toll from the day remains disputed, though certain groups have put it in the thousands. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio commemorated the crackdown yesterday, incurring the wrath of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry.
200: More than 200 inmates escaped a Pakistani prison in Karachi, a city of more than 20 million people, on Tuesday after a series of earthquakes damaged the facility. Early reports say police have re-arrested 80 of the inmates, meaning 120 or so remained at large.
4: “I want to see the tax cuts made permanent, but I also want to see the $5 trillion in new debt removed from the bill. At least4 of us in the Senate feel this way.” That’s the comment US Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) made on X on Tuesday about President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” If four Republican senators vote no on the bill, it will fail.
2: On Tuesday, two Chinese nationals were accused of smuggling a fungus into the United States that officials say is a potentially “dangerous biological pathogen.” The US Attorney’s Office in the eastern district of Michigan cites scientific reports that call this fungus a “potential agroterrorism weapon” that can destroy wheat, barley, maize and rice crops — and can sicken those who eat contaminated products.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi enter a hall for a family photo before a plenary session of the BRICS 2024 Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.
What happened to that Pakistan-India war?
It’s been 18 days since India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire which ended the clashes that had killed dozens on either side of the de facto border in Kashmir. But while the guns are silent, the two arch rivals are still locked in a war of words, with each dispatching officials abroad to shape the narrative.
What’s happened since the ceasefire? The physical fighting – which erupted after a terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan – has mostly paused. There were reports of violence in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, but neither government was fazed – they each stood by the ceasefire.
Even so, India-Pakistan relations have dropped to a new nadir, punctuated by New Delhi’s refusal to reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty. The pact outlines how each country can use reserves from the Indus river – without it, Pakistan is at risk of losing access, in the long run, to virtually its only water source. Signed in 1960, the agreement has survived several rounds of conflicts between these warring neighbors – including ones worse than this latest flare up – yet there are no signs that it will be patched back together this time.
“Pakistan will not be given the water which is rightfully India’s,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said last week, dampening Pakistan’s hopes of maintaining unfiltered access to a river basin that waters 90% of its crops.
So why the foreign missions? Islamabad is highlighting the importance of its own security, adding that it wants to ensure long-term peace and renew the water treaty. It seeks to pile the blame on New Delhi.
Modi’s crew rebukes these claims, and reiterates its belief that the Pakistani government has boosted terrorist groups in the area – the Indian prime minister said on Tuesday that this terrorism has been a part of Pakistan’s strategy since the country’s inception.
Who are India and Pakistan making their cases to? India is flooding the zone (shoutout, Stephen Miller), sending parliamentary delegations to 33 countries, including a raft of European heavyweights like Germany and Russia. Pakistan is being a little more selective: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Turkey – a close ally – on Sunday, while his deputy was in China last week.
Pakistan’s Trump card. Given his disparaging comments about Pakistan during his first term, US President Donald Trump’s return to office wasn’t expected to be a boon for Islamabad. Yet he has changed his tune, striking a more diplomatic tone between the two South Asian nuclear powers when the US has previously sided more with India over China-backed Pakistan.
It also just so happens a Trump family-backed business inked a crypto deal with Pakistan. Maybe that was just a coincidence. Either way, India isn’t pleased – which may explain its decision to barnstorm across Europe in search of non-US support.
Could the fighting recommence? It’s not outside the realm of possibility, if the rhetoric is any indicator. Modi wasn’t exactly conciliatory during an address on Monday, when he told Pakistanis to “eat bread peacefully, or else my bullet is there.” Pakistan hardly seems to be backing down, either: army leader Asim Munir, an influential figure who emphasizes sectarian differences, just had his term extended from three to five years, in a move that suggests further skirmishes could ensue.
So why the big messaging offensive? Does someone just want the air miles? It’s not clear if the diplomatic press is meant to engage global powers in mediation, or if it’s to line up backers in anticipation of another bout of flighting. Either way, neither side seems keen for all-out war nor a long-lasting peace – it looks instead like they want the Goldilocks scenario between the two.
Trump's weekend of geopolitical success
Lots of headline announcements from Trump himself, and the biggest one in terms of the markets is not necessarily something you'd call a success. It's more a backtrack, but a useful backtrack nonetheless and one that we're all glad to see. Trump, of course, kicked off this global trade war with pretty much everyone, but especially with the Chinese, where he was essentially talking about a decoupling between the two largest economies in the world, raising tariffs against China to 145%, meaning nobody's going to buy any goods from China. Chinese doing the same against the Americans, raising up to 125%.
China was not going to pick up the phone to call Trump, and he was surprised that they hit back. He thought that this was going to lead to a negotiation and much more careful caution from the Chinese. As you saw from a lot of American allies around the world, not the case. And so, not only did he get his own administration to respond and talk with the Chinese and say, "We'd like to engage in person." But also sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, US Trade Rep, by far the most capable on the trade side that are senior and report to Trump.
And after a couple of days of meetings in Geneva, we've got 90 days off, and we have 125% off the American tariffs. So, we're at, what? 30% or 115% off, or 30% for the Americans, 10% for the Chinese. In other words, trade can happen again. And a joint statement from the US and Chinese governments, which is very rare under any government, frankly, with China, certainly with an adversary, to show that there is no daylight on the desire to pull back against decoupling, and also to engage directly between the two countries over the coming months to try to ensure that these trade gets to a mutually more respectful place.
Now, what's interesting is Trump had been trying to push so many allies around the world to align with the US on decoupling from China as part of the trade negotiations, that obviously, that piece of the negotiations isn't going to move anywhere. Japan pushed back, most countries aren't interested, certainly not the Europeans. Now, it's not really going to be credible, and I think Trump will quietly drop it, and the markets of course shoot up as a consequence of that.
So, two steps forward, two steps back. We're kind of where we were before Liberation Day on US-China. Yes, there are some additional sectoral tariffs, and this is going to be costly. But on the bilateral relationship, frankly, not an enormous amount has actually changed. Okay, so that's not a win.
What do I mean that he's had successful time on the global stage? Well, internationally, there've been a bunch of wins. India, Pakistan, significant escalation on the back of this Kashmiri terrorist incident, with lots of Indians getting killed, Indian civilians. The Indians respond by hitting Pakistani terrorist targets, according to India, but in civilian locations, so they don't mind that Pakistani civilians are getting killed. Then Pakistan responded, then India responded, and the Americans stepped in and facilitated a ceasefire.
Marco Rubio probably his single win on the global stage that we've seen so far, helps him with Trump. He also announced there would be trilateral engagement going forward between the countries. That's not going to happen. But we are, I would say again, at the status quo ante on Pakistan, India at this time, the Americans facilitated.
The Houthis had been threatening US and other shipping through the Red Sea. The Americans decided to blow up lots of Houthis military leadership capabilities. That was the Signal Gate leak that came out. And a few weeks after that, the Houthis said, "Okay, we won't attack the shipping lanes anymore, as long as you stop attacking us." That's a win for the United States. It was facilitated by Iran, who's engaged in direct bilateral negotiations with the United States right now, and Iran in a much worse position geopolitically, the Gulf states would love to see that happening. They're hosting Trump this week. That's likely to progress significantly. Maybe even Trump will meet with high-level Iranians. We'll see if we get a surprise there. But nonetheless, that's all in a much better position than it was before. And so too relations between the Gulf States and the US. Saudi US bilateral relations, including a willingness to allow for nuclear energy and development in Saudi Arabia.
Lots of new investments that are going to be announced with all three stops. Yes, there's this unfortunate announcement of a gift that shouldn't be accepted from Qatar of a 747. And then that's going to wrap up the first trip that Trump makes internationally, as well as the release of the sole remaining US hostage in Gaza. And that had been driven by the Israelis together with the US and the US angry with Netanyahu, who's continuing to engage in a war and taking over lots of territory in Gaza and not allowing humanitarian aid in. The Americans deciding they were going to negotiate directly for themselves, and with success before that trip.
So, all of those things, announcements that are frankly welcome. And the one big conflict where we're not seeing progress is Russia, Ukraine. It is plausible that there will be a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky on Thursday. Zelensky is calling for it, the Europeans, the Americans are calling for it directly. Let's see if Putin actually shows up, or if he says, "I want to do a lower level meeting to start." Either way, it looks very unlikely that he's going to actually accept a ceasefire on terms that would be remotely acceptable by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, or even the United States, which means not much progress there.
But at least Trump not willing to do a deal with Putin absent a ceasefire, which means the Americans, the Europeans, and even the Ukrainians are more aligned today than they were a week ago, two weeks ago. Certainly during that shambolic Zelensky visit to the Oval just a few weeks back. So, good news over the weekend, and some good news coming this week. And I'm personally delighted to be able to report some things that are positive about what's happening in Trump administration, as opposed to things that are breaking and things that are falling apart. Let's hope that continues. I'll talk to you all real soon.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer address the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 11, 2025.
The US hits the reset button with China
Mother’s Day is a time to build bridges, apparently, as the United States and China both agreed to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points each for 90 days following talks in Geneva over the weekend. US tariffs on Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will sink from 125% to 10%.
What’s spurring a settlement? Both countries’ economies havetaken a hit ever since the two countries started a trade war around a month ago.
Will businesses buy the truce? At the height of the US-China trade war last month, Apple said they will shift iPhone production to India. We’ll be watching to see if there’s any plans to reverse course.
Bloodbath or breakthrough? Ukraine demands truce before talks
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are tentatively scheduled for May 15 in Istanbul, where Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky says he’ll be waiting to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But Kyiv insists that an unconditional 30-day ceasefire take effect as of Monday – a condition Moscow has so far rejected.
What’s the White House view? US President Donald Trumpcalled on Ukraine to accept Russia’s offer to meet regardless of a truce, “to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.”
But does Russia really want peace? Iran is reportedly preparing to send Fath-360 missile launchers to Moscow, though Tehran denies this. If true, it casts doubt on Moscow's commitment to ending the conflict.
Speaking of the Middle East, Hamas said it would freeEdan Alexander, the last living American hostage, ahead of Trump’s visit to the region this week. It’s unclear what Hamas is getting in return.
Doubts loom over Kashmir truce
India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire in Kashmir on Saturday after the worst fighting in the disputed region in over two decades. The US claimed to have brokered the deal; however, India downplayed its role while Pakistan lauded Washington’s involvement.
But can it hold? The current truce is fragile: leaders from each side said they were keeping the peace, yet explosions were reported in the area. There may be peace for now, but all parties have their work cut out to maintain it.
A damaged portion of Bilal Mosque is seen after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025.
India launches strikes on Pakistan
It was never going to end quietly: India early on Wednesday bombed what it said were nine militant sites within Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, reportedly killing at least 26 people in the worst clash between the two countries in decades.
Warning signs. India launched the strikes in retaliation for a terrorist rampage in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir last month. Pakistan says it had nothing to do with that attack.
Pakistani response now inbound. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the Indian airstrikes an “act of war,” and has reportedly authorized the military to respond in kind.
Reaction from abroad. Major countries including the US, Japan, France, and China – which has close ties to Pakistan but borders both countries – called for restraint. Israel notably issued its unequivocal support for India and its right to self defense.
What will happen next? “Pakistan has traditionally responded with a tit for tat response, normally a bombing run on a minor target on Indian soil,” said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Eurasia Group’s South Asia practice head. However, Chaudhuri doesn’t expect the fighting to last long.
“Both sides are nuclear armed, neither has overwhelming military dominance and both lack the economic or political interest in a sustained conflict,” said Chaudhuri. “These skirmishes tend to die out within 24 to 48 hours.”
Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol along a road in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.
India and Pakistan inch toward a major clash
Nerves are fraught throughout Pakistan after authorities said Wednesday they have “credible intelligence” that India plans to launch military strikes on its soil by Friday, fueling fears of an outright clash between the two nuclear-armed archrivals. Troops from both sides have been exchanging fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir since a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled section killed 26 civilians last Tuesday. Both China and the US are calling for restraint.
Tensions are spiraling rapidly. India closed its airspace to Pakistan on Wednesday and ordered nearly all Pakistani citizens to leave the country last week. Pakistan – while denying any involvement in the attacks – also canceled visas last week for most Indian citizens in retaliation. The scenes of rapid flight evoked painful memories of the 1947 Partition when Hindus in Pakistan and Muslims in India fled bloody ethnic massacres in the newly formed nations.
How bad could it get? The two countries have had two major wars, in 1965 and 1971, both of which India won, in the latter case quite decisively. In the ensuing decades, however, India has utterly outstripped Pakistan economically, militarily, and diplomatically, which means that Islamabad’s chances of prevailing in a conventional confrontation are very slim.
The balance of power shifted nonetheless when Pakistan began developing nuclear weapons in 1972 to match the India program begun in 1967. This has prevented a full-scale attack ever since. When the two sides went to war in 1999, hostilities lasted just over two months and were geographically limited to the Himalayas. If New Delhi should be foolish enough to existentially threaten its neighbor, it raises the grim – albeit unlikely – prospect of a nuclear exchange.
We’re watching for a limited engagement, but we’re far from sanguine about the risks.
71 Islamist militants have been killed along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in recent days.
The Graphic Truth: Pakistan kills Afghan militants
Pakistan accused the infiltrators of working for the Pakistani Taliban, a sister terrorist organization to the group that now controls Afghanistan. Islamabad says the Pakistani Taliban is orchestrating a campaign of violence that has rocked the country in recent months with high-profile bombings and shootings
Pakistan’s information minister claimed that India was encouraging the Taliban to strike in a bid to distract Islamabad’s forces from a simultaneous confrontation in Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan partially occupy the disputed mountain region and have traded fire in small skirmishes in recent days after Islamist militants killed 26 civilians last week in the largest terrorist attack to hit the region in years. Indian forces have detained over 1,500 people and destroyed several houses linked to alleged perpetrators. China, a major ally of Pakistan’s, is urging restraint on both sides.
Students shout slogans and burn an effigy to protest the Pahalgam terror attack in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 24, 2025. On April 22, a devastating terrorist attack occurs in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 tourists.
India threatens Pakistan’s water
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has blamed Pakistan for Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, and he’s takenaggressive action against its government. The most striking of these moves is a decision to suspend theIndus Waters Treaty, which sets terms for the sharing of water that flows from the Indus River and its tributaries from India into Pakistan.
Pakistanis depend on water from the Indus for drinking, farming, and hydropower. Some80% of Pakistan’s water comes from these rivers, and agriculture is the only source of income for 70% of its rural population.
Water-sharing between the two countries has generated controversy in recent years. In particular, Pakistan charges that India’sconstruction of dams upstream is cheating Pakistan of much-needed volumes of water.
This is the first time the treaty has been suspended, despite multiple wars between the two nuclear-armed neighbors since the Indus River agreement, brokered by the World Bank, was signed in September 1960. Indian officials threatened to suspend the treaty following a suicide bombing in 2019, but Modi’s government didn’t follow through.
There is no evidence yet that India is restricting the flow of water, but Pakistan’s government says it will treat any diversion of water as an act of war.